What is the expected timeline for the NCIB completion and are there any potential regulatory or financing risks that could delay it?

Expected timeline

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s acceptance of FirstService’s notice means the “offer period” can now begin. In Canada, a normal‑course issuer bid (NC B) typically follows a three‑stage timetable:

1. Offer period – up to 30 calendar days – the company may tender shares at the announced price.
   
2. Acceptance period – up to 30 calendar days – shareholders who have tendered must confirm acceptance of the bid.
   
3. Completion (settlement) – up to 30 calendar days – the company must deliver the cash consideration and cancel the accepted shares.

Assuming FirstService proceeds on a standard schedule, the whole process should be wrapped up in ≈ 60‑90 days from the TSX acceptance date (mid‑late September 2025 to early November 2025). Management may accelerate the timeline if cash is already on hand, but the statutory windows set a minimum of roughly two months.

Regulatory and financing risks

• Regulatory bottlenecks: The NCIB still requires filing of a “offer document” with the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) and the TSX, plus any required shareholder approvals (e.g., for a “share‑repurchase” that exceeds 10 % of the float). If the OSC requests additional disclosures or the TSX raises compliance questions, the offer period could be extended or the bid paused.
  
• Financing constraints: FirstService must have sufficient liquidity or secure a revolving credit facility to fund the buy‑back. A sudden tightening of credit markets, a downgrade of its credit rating, or a material swing in its cash‑flow generation could force the company to scale back the offer size or defer settlement.
  
• Share‑holder acceptance: If a large block of shareholders (e.g., institutional holders) rejects the bid, the company may need to renegotiate the price or extend the offer, which in turn can trigger additional regulatory filings and delay completion.

Trading implication

Given the typical 60‑90 day window and the absence of any disclosed financing short‑fall, the market should price in a near‑term buy‑back‑driven upside. However, traders should monitor OSC filings and any statements about the availability of cash or credit lines; any negative regulatory comment or financing hiccup could compress the timeline and add short‑term downside pressure. A short‑position on the spread between the current market price and the announced NCIB price is justified until the offer period closes, while a long position can be taken on the expectation of a smooth, on‑time completion.