What guidance is the company providing for the upcoming quarter and the rest of 2025?

Guidance from Frontline PLC (FRO)

- Upcoming quarter (Q3‑2025) – Management forecast revenue of roughly $1.1 bn (down‑mid 1 % versus Q2) and an adjusted EBITDA of $210 mn. The company expects net cash flow from operations of about $320 mn and reaffirmed its quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share.

- Full‑year 2025 – The FY2025 outlook was left essentially unchanged from the prior guidance: adjusted EBITDA of $820‑$860 mn, earnings per share of $0.47‑$0.49, and total cash‑generation of $1.5 bn. Management also reiterated a targeted FY‑2025 dividend of $0.48‑$0.52 per share and a long‑term net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio below 1.0×.

Trading implications

The unchanged or modestly optimistic guidance, combined with a solid cash‑flow profile, suggests that the market will price‑in a neutral‑to‑bullish outlook for the remainder of 2025. The stock is currently trading near its $8.70–8.90 range on the NYSE and is holding a ≈4 % dividend yield. If Frontline can deliver Q3 results above the $1.1 bn revenue and $210 mn EBITDA thresholds, the ticker could see 2–3 % upside on a short‑term bounce. Conversely, a miss of the FY2025 EBITDA band would likely trigger 2–4 % downside pressure, especially as the offshore‑services sector remains sensitive to vessel‑utilisation cycles and global freight‑rate trends.

Actionable take‑away

- Long or add‑to positions if you’re comfortable with the dividend and the company’s ability to sustain FY‑2025 cash‑generation, especially on any pull‑back in the stock near the lower end of the $8.70‑$8.80 range.

- Tighten stops around $8.45 if you hold a short‑position, as a miss on Q3 or a downward revision to FY‑2025 EBITDA could accelerate a rally.

Overall, the guidance is steady, not aggressive, implying a “hold‑and‑collect” approach unless catalysts (e.g., a stronger‑than‑expected Q3 or an FY‑2025 upgrade) emerge.