FOX

What is the timeline for the process test work on converting MGA to PPA, and when can results be expected?

Created August 11, 2025 at 11:32 AM

Timeline & Expected Results

The Critical Minerals Innovation Fund award will be applied to “process‑test work” on the Martison project. In comparable Ontario‑government‑funded pilot programs, the test‑work phase normally runs for 3 – 6 months from the start‑up date. Because the award was announced on 11 Aug 2025, we can reasonably expect the test programme to commence in late Q3 2025 (September‑October) and to be completed by late Q4 2025 (December‑January). Assuming a typical data‑validation and reporting window, pre‑liminary results should be disclosed in the first quarter of 2026 (≈ Feb‑Mar 2026).

Trading Implications

- Short‑term: The announcement already lifted FOX on the news‑feed, but the stock will likely trade in a tight range until the test‑work start‑date is confirmed. A modest‑‑size “buy‑the‑dip” on any pull‑back (e.g., 5‑10 % below the current level) positions you to capture upside if the Q4 2025 milestone is met on schedule.

- Mid‑term catalyst: A successful conversion of merchant‑grade phosphoric acid (MGA) to purified phosphoric acid (PPA) will validate the Martison plant’s ability to feed the fast‑growing LFP‑battery supply chain. Positive Q1‑2026 results could trigger a 20‑30 % rally as investors price in the de‑risking of the downstream PPA‑production route and the potential to secure off‑take contracts with EV‑battery makers.

- Risk: Delays beyond the 3‑6‑month window or inconclusive test data would expose the stock to downside pressure, especially if the company must seek additional capital to extend the pilot. Keep a stop‑loss at roughly 8‑10 % below the entry price to guard against such a scenario.

Actionable take‑away: Enter a small, opportunistic long position now (or add to existing exposure) with a view to exit or scale up ahead of the Q4 2025 test‑completion and Q1 2026 result release. The upside from a successful MGA‑to‑PPA conversion is significant, while the limited downside is manageable given the short‑term timeline.

Other Questions About This News

What are the technical and commercial risks associated with the conversion of merchant grade phosphoric acid to purified phosphosphoric acid? Will the funding trigger any additional government incentives, grants, or partnerships for Fox River? How might this funding announcement influence Fox River's stock price and trading volume in the short term? What is the expected market size and pricing outlook for purified phosphoric acid in the LFP battery market? How does the funding amount compare to Fox River’s historical R&D spend and the overall capital requirements of the Martison project? What are the potential regulatory or environmental hurdles for scaling up the PPA production process? How does Fox River’s technology for converting MGA to PPA compare to competitor technologies in terms of efficiency, cost, and scalability? Will this funding lead to any changes in Fox River's capital structure, such as dilution or debt issuance? What is the potential impact on Fox River's valuation multiples (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) if the project successfully reaches commercial production? How will the CAD$218,500 funding award affect Fox River's cash flow and balance sheet in the near term? How does the Martison project’s potential in the LFP battery supply chain compare to other Canadian or global projects?