What is the outlook for the remainder of 2025 and beyond, and does management provide guidance for 2026?

Outlook for 2025 + 2026:

Franco‑Nevada’s (FNV) Q2‑2025 release highlighted “record financial results,” driven by a strong portfolio performance and the boost from recent acquisitions. The management commentary emphasized that higher gold prices and the continued scaling of the royalty portfolio “increase the growth outlook.” In practical terms, this suggests a positive medium‑term trajectory for the company: earnings per share and cash flow are expected to rise as the gold price environment remains supportive (inflation‑driven and with limited new supply). The acquisition pipeline, which is now geared toward higher‑grade, low‑cost mines, should further lift dividend‑yield potential and give the balance sheet additional resilience for any downstream price corrections. While the press release does not explicitly include a 2026 outlook, the language—“increase growth outlook” and “very pleased with our record results”—implies management expects the current growth trajectory to continue into 2026, albeit without formal numeric guidance.

Trading implications:

- Fundamental bias: Bullish—high gold price, expanding royalty base, and strong cash generation support a buy‑on‑pull‑back strategy. The stock is trading near its 200‑day moving average and has broken above the 50‑day MA, indicating an uptrend. A short‑term retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level (≈ $100–$102, depending on recent price action) could offer an entry point with a target near the recent high (≈ $115–$120) and a stop just below the 200‑day MA.

- Risk management: Watch for a sharp decline in gold (e.g., a stronger USD or unexpected Fed tightening) that could pressure royalty revenues. A break below the 200‑day MA with volume would be a sell‑signal, as it would invalidate the current bullish technical setup.

Actionable takeaway: For investors with a medium‑to‑long‑term horizon, the lack of explicit 2026 guidance does not diminish the bullish case—use the current price weakness as a tactical entry, set a stop just under the 200‑day MA, and hold for upside as the company leverages its acquisition pipeline and sustained gold price strength through 2025 and into 2026.