Topâholding changes (JulyâŻ31âŻ2025 vs. prior month)
- Increased exposure to Californiaâbased generalâobligation bonds (up from ~5âŻ% to ~9âŻ% of net assets), primarily the âLos Angeles CountyâŻ2029â and âSan Diego CountyâŻ2034â series.
- Reduced exposure to NewâŻYork âMTAâbondâ series (down from ~7âŻ% to ~3âŻ% of net assets).
- Added a new position in Texasâstate âGeneral Obligationâ bonds (e.g., âDallasâ2028â and âHoustonâ2030â) that now represent roughly 4âŻ% of the portfolio.
- Reduced a small position in Ohio âSchoolâdistrictâ bonds (down from 2âŻ% to <1âŻ%).
Impact on risk and return
The shift toward California highâyield municipal bonds raises both yield and creditârisk exposure. Californiaâs municipal market has been offering some of the highest taxâfree yields in the sector, but it also carries higher stateâspecific fiscal risk (e.g., pension liabilities, budget volatility). The added 4âŻ% allocation to Texas generalâobligation bonds provides a counterâbalance: Texas has a strong credit profile and a larger, more diversified tax base, which should temper the overall portfolio credit risk while adding modestly higher yields than the prior NewâŻYork MTA exposure. Cutting the NewâŻYork MTA position removes a component with relatively lower yield but strong credit stability; this may slightly raise the fundâs overall duration and sensitivity to interestârate moves, because the newly added California bonds have longer maturities (2029â2034) compared with the older MTA series (2025â2028).
Trading implications
- Yield upside: The netâincrease in highâyield California exposure could push the fundâs effective taxâfree yield into the highâ4%âlowâ5% range, making the fund attractive for incomeâfocused investors. Expect a modest uptick in demand for the fund, potentially supporting the NAV in the shortâterm.
- Creditârisk premium: Investors should monitor Californiaâs fiscal health and any policy changes that could affect municipal debt service. A worsening fiscal outlook could trigger a riskâoff reaction and a dip in FMâs share price.
- Duration risk: The longer average maturity may make the fund more sensitive to a risingârate environment. If Treasury yields accelerate, the fundâs price could be pressured, especially on the longerâdated California holdings.
Actionable insight: If you are currently long FMN, the higher yield and modest creditârisk shift make a small addâon (10â15âŻ% of position) attractive for a yieldâfocused portfolio, provided you have a tolerance for slightly higher credit and duration risk. Conversely, riskâaverse investors might trim exposure to the newly enlarged California portion or hedge duration risk with a shortâterm Treasury or municipalâbond futures position, especially if the 10âyear Treasury curve remains steepening.