What is the likely timeline for any settlement or court ruling, and how could that affect liquidity and volatility?

Likely timeline

Class‑action securities suits and related investigations typically move at a moderate‑to‑slow pace. After a filing with a firm like Pomerantz, the case usually runs through discovery, a possible “motion for summary adjudication” and settlement negotiations before ever reaching a court‑room decision. In practice, that process takes six months to a year from the first public notice, with the most common window landing around the mid‑to‑late‑2025‑early‑2026 period. Only if the parties jump to an early settlement (e.g., a confidential “quick‑fix” agreement) would we see a resolution before the four‑quarter calendar; otherwise, expect the dispute to still be lingering through the Q4 2025 and potentially spilling into Q1 2026.

Impact on liquidity & volatility

• Liquidity: While the case drifts through the legal pipeline, many investors will hold positions rather than trade, leading to a thinner order book around the FLYY float. The “investor‑alert” wording also prompts cautious behavior among institutional desks, further suppressing depth. As the settlement date approaches, any hint of a positive outcome (e.g., a settlement‑payment announcement) will trigger a sharp influx of buying, re‑filling the order flow. Conversely, a “no‑win” or prolonged stalemate can keep the market flat‑lined and illiquid for weeks.
• Volatility: The uncertainty surrounding the claim creates exogenous price spikes. Until the firm releases concrete progress (e.g., a court‑scheduled hearing or a settlement offer), the market will price in a wide‑range, high‑beta environment. Expect an elevated implied‑volatility (IV) premium on options, especially near‑term straddles and strangles, as traders price the binary “win/lose” outcome. When a settlement date is finally set—whether by court order or negotiated agreement—historical patterns show a price‑reaction burst (5‑10 % move) as the “unknown” collapses, followed by a normalization of both spread and volume.

Trading take‑aways

1. Position for volatility now – consider buying short‑dated options (e.g., 30‑day calendars, straddles) to capture the IV premium while keeping delta exposure limited. The underlying may trade in a narrow range, but the option price can still rise on “news‑event” anticipation.
2. Avoid large directional bets – with limited liquidity and a pending legal timeline, a sizable market order can move the price disproportionately. Use incremental, algorithmic‑type entries or liquidity‑seeking VWAP algorithms if you must trade larger sizes.
3. Monitor the docket – any filing of a court‑set hearing date, settlement‑offer press release, or Pomerantz update will act as a catalyst. Tight‑stop placement around the current support/resistance levels (e.g., $3.20–$3.30) can help manage the risk of abrupt “court‑date” spikes. If the case heads toward a settlement in the next 3‑6 months, a bullish bias on the long‑side of the announcement may be justified; otherwise, a short‑volatility tilt is prudent.