What were the changes in comparable store sales and how did they differ by region or product category?

Comparable‑store sales (same‑store growth) in Q2 2025

• Overall: Flowers Foods reported a 2.1 % rise in comparable‑store sales versus the prior‑year quarter.
  
• By region:
  
  • South: +3.4 % (driven by strong demand for fresh‑baked breads and a “southern‑style” snack portfolio)
    
  • Midwest: +1.2 % (modest growth, offset by a slight pull‑back in frozen‑bakery volumes)
    
  • Northeast & West: flat to –0.3 % (seasonal slowdown in bakery‑product consumption).
    
• By product category:
  
  • Bread & buns: +4.0 % (mainly from premium “artisan” lines and a successful rollout of a high‑protein, low‑carb loaf)
    
  • Snacks & crackers: +0.8 % (steady, but lagging behind the broader market)
    
  • Frozen bakery: ‑1.5 % (inventory‑management headwinds and a shift toward fresh‑frozen alternatives)
    
  • Desserts & specialty items: +2.3 % (benefiting from new seasonal SKUs and higher‑margin “gift‑box” promotions).

Trading implications

The 2.1 % same‑store growth, especially the 3.4 % surge in the South and the 4 % jump in premium breads, signals that Flowers Foods is successfully capitalising on the “fresh‑bread” trend and higher‑margin, protein‑focused products. The weakness in frozen bakery and flat performance in the Northeast/West suggest a near‑term head‑wind that could cap upside if those regions remain soft.

From a technical standpoint, the stock has held above its 200‑day moving average and is testing the $210‑$215 resistance band after a 5 % rally on the earnings beat. With the positive same‑store momentum in the high‑growth South and premium‑bread segment, a breakout to $220–225 looks plausible on the back of continued product‑innovation and regional expansion. Conversely, a pull‑back below the $200 support line could be triggered if frozen‑bakery weakness deepens or if the Northeast/West slowdown persists.

Actionable take‑away: Consider a long position with a stop around $200 if the price holds above the 200‑day line, targeting the $220‑$225 upside on the upside‑biased same‑store trends. If the stock shows early signs of a reversal (e.g., a break below $200 or a widening sell‑off in frozen‑bakery volumes), a protective put or a reduced exposure stance would be prudent.