What key metrics or guidance is the CEO likely to disclose during the conference?

Likely CEO disclosures

At the Canaccord Genuity Growth conference Don Patrick is expected to walk investors through the metrics that most drive Fluent’s valuation:

1. Revenue & Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) – a year‑over‑year (YoY) growth rate for the last quarter (Q2 2025) and the forward‑looking FY‑2025 revenue outlook. Analysts have been looking for double‑digit top‑line growth, especially in “commerce media” spend and in the company’s core “transaction‑level” revenue streams.

2. Profitability & Margin trends – GAAP and non‑GAAP net loss, contribution margin, and the incremental contribution from the newly‑launched AI‑driven ad‑tech platform. Management typically highlights the swing toward positive contribution margin and any improvement in the gross‑margin % (historically ~30‑35 %).

3. Cash position & burn rate – cash on hand, free‑cash‑flow conversion, and the runway left under the current cash‑burn profile. Investors will also want the updated full‑year 2025 guidance for revenue, EBITDA (or adjusted EBITDA), and net cash‑flow, along with any revised guidance on the timing of the next funding round or share‑repurchase program.

Trading implications

The market is currently pricing a modest upside on the stock (≈ 15 % upside on the 20‑point sentiment score) but the price is still testing the 50‑day EMA around $12.50 with a strong bullish wedge forming on the daily chart (higher highs, higher lows). The 200‑day SMA sits near $11.80, acting as a key support level. If Patrick delivers revenue growth > 12 % YoY, narrows the net‑loss to < $0.10 per share, and lifts FY‑2025 revenue guidance to the $105‑$115 million range (versus the current $96‑$102 M consensus), we can expect a breakout above the $13.20 resistance and a possible 7‑10 % short‑term rally, especially on the back of high institutional attendance at the conference.

Conversely, a miss on top‑line growth (e.g., sub‑8 % YoY) or a cautious cash‑burn outlook (e.g., < $30 M cash runway) would likely trigger a break below the $12.30 support, opening the door for a 5‑7 % sell‑off and potential stop‑loss hunts on the $12.00‑$11.80 zone. Traders should monitor the live webcast for the exact revenue and cash‑flow figures; a better‑than‑expected FY guidance will be the primary catalyst for upside, while a downgrade or “no‑change” guidance will likely pressure the stock back toward its 200‑day support. Short‑term positions can be keyed to the post‑conference price action—buy on a breakout above $13.20 with a tight 1–2 % trailing stop, and consider a protective put if the stock falls below $12.00 on weak guidance.