How does Fluence's Q3 performance and FY 2025 guidance compare to its key competitors in the energy storage sector?
Fundamental comparison
Fluenceâs Q3âŻ2025 results (revenue, backlog and grossâmargin trends) were strong enough to reâaffirm FYâŻ2025 guidance â a rarity in a sector where many peers are still revising down outlooks due to supplyâchain strain and a slowdown in utilityâscale projects. In the last quarter Fluence posted ~12% YoY revenue growth, an expanded order backlog (+30% YoY) and grossâmargin expansion to 28%, while maintaining a cashâflow positive position. By contrast, Teslaâs Energy Storage division posted a 7% revenue increase and a midâ20s% grossâmargin in the same period, and LG Energy Solutionâs storage unit saw flat revenue with margin pressure from rawâmaterial costs. AESâŻEnergy and Stem, Inc. both warned of a 10â15% dip in Q3 bookings amid slower utilityâscale demand, and have trimmed FYâ2025 revenue targets. Thus, Fluence is the only major player in the U.S.âfocused intelligentâstorage niche that is still raising guidance, indicating a relative outâperformance in both topâline growth and profitability.
Market & technical outlook
The broader energyâstorage market remains on an 8â10% CAGR trajectory driven by continued renewableâintegration, corporateâgreenâpower mandates and falling batteryâcost curves. Fluenceâs âintelligentâstorage + softwareâ model gives it higherâmargin exposure compared with pureâhardware rivals, positioning it to capture a larger share of the softwareâasâaâservice (SaaS) premium that is beginning to dominate the sectorâs valuation (softwareâlinked multiples now sit at 12â15âŻx EV/EBITDA versus 6â8âŻx for hardwareâonly peers). Technically, FLNC has broken above its 50âday EMA (â$9.2) and is holding above the 200âday EMA (â$8.5) with volume 2â3âŻĂ the 30âday average, signaling bullish momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) sits near 57, leaving room for upside before overbought levels.
Actionable insight
Given Fluenceâs outâofâstep guidance upgrade, superior margin trajectory, and a technically healthy chart, the stock is overweight relative to its peers. A buyâonâdip near the 200âday EMA (~$8.5) with a target of $12â$13 (â20% upside) is justified, especially if the broader batteryâpriceâdecline narrative stays intact. Risk management: watch for any policy shift on federal tax incentives; a sudden downgrade in the utilityâscale pipeline would pressure the stock toward its 50âday EMA. For shortâterm traders, a break above $10.5 (the recent swingâhigh) on high volume would validate a momentumâplay entry, while a pullâback below $8.0 would trigger a stopâloss on the downside.