How likely is the shareholder vote to reject the new advisory agreement and what immediate impact could that have on FINS’s share price?

Likelihood of the vote to reject the advisory agreement

The letter from a “concerned investor” is a clear signal that a sizeable, organized block of shareholders is mobilising around an opposition narrative. In a trust structure such as FINS, activists often control a material portion of the float because many of the remaining shares sit with institutions that trade passively. Given the  ‑65  sentiment score, the market already interprets the advisory‑agreement proposal as a negative catalyst, and the fact that the share price has already slumped >35 % since the trust’s inception suggests that confidence in Angel Oak’s stewardship is fragile. Historically, when a single, vocal shareholder publicly declares an intent to vote against a governance item, the opposition threshold can be as low as 20‑30 % of the total outstanding shares if the rest of the investor base is indifferent. In FINS, that threshold is likely to be met or exceeded once the letters and any subsequent proxy‑material are circulated, making a rejection scenario more probable than approval—a rough 60‑70 % chance of the proposal being defeated.

Immediate price impact

If the vote materialises as a rejection, the market will treat it as a confirming signal that Angel Oak will be removed (or forced to renegotiate) and that the trust’s current management is under serious scrutiny. In the short‑run this typically triggers down‑side pressure of 4‑7 % on the share price as risk‑averse holders unwind positions and speculative traders take the news as a negative surprise. Conversely, if the rejection clears the way for a fresh, higher‑quality adviser, a secondary bounce could follow within a week‑to‑month as the new manager’s strategy is priced in—but that recovery would be contingent on a credible successor being named.

Actionable take‑away

‑ Monitor the proxy‑statement deadline and any follow‑up filings for the exact tally of “against” submissions. 

‑ If the opposition threshold is breached and the vote is announced, consider a short‑position or a stop‑loss‑protected sell to capture the expected 4‑7 % dip. 

‑ If, however, the trust announces a credible replacement adviser quickly, a partial‑cover or a short‑term long on the bounce may be justified once the rejection is confirmed.