Potential liability â what the market can expect
Classâaction securitiesâfraud suits against largeâcap issuers typically generate settlements that sit in the midâtensâofâmillions to lowâhundredsâofâmillions of dollars range, with a few outliers pushing into the $1âŻbillionâplus tier (e.g., the 2022 Tesla case, $1.1âŻbn; the 2020 Robinhood case, $1.5âŻbn). Because the Rosen Law Firm is targeting all commonâstock purchasers of FI from 7/24/24â7/22/25, the exposure is likely to be scaled to the number of affected shareholders and the average shareâprice during the class period.
If we assume roughly 2âŻmillionâŻ*âŻ$150 average holdings (â$300âŻmm of aggregate purchase value) and a typical âfairâvalueâ award of 15â20âŻ% of that exposure (as seen in comparable âmidâcapâ cases such as the 2021 Zoom and 2023 Snowflake settlements, which each paid ~$120â$180âŻmm), the potential liability for FI could fall between $45âŻmm and $60âŻmm. In a worstâcase âenhancedâ scenarioâwhere a court applies a âenhanced damagesâ factor of 2Ă the fairâvalue awardâthe exposure could rise to $90âŻmmâ$120âŻmm.
Trading implications
- Shortâterm downside: Anticipate a 2â4âŻ% price correction as the market prices in the risk of a settlement, especially if the case proceeds to a classâcertification hearing.
- Volatility spike: Implied volatility (IV) on FI options is likely to expand by 15â25âŻ% over the next 4â6âŻweeks, creating opportunities for deltaâneutral credit spreads or longâvolatility plays.
- Positioning: Consider a partial short position (e.g., 1â2âŻ% of daily volume) or buying outâofâtheâmoney puts to capture the downside, while keeping a modest protective call to cap upside risk. If you prefer a nonâdirectional stance, a long straddle at the current 30âdayâtoâexpiration strike can profit from the expected IV expansion.
In short, based on precedent, the liability exposure for FI is most plausibly in the $45âŻmmâ$120âŻmm band, which should translate into a modest but measurable price impact and heightened shortâterm volatilityâboth of which can be exploited with carefully sized directional or volatilityâbiased option structures.