How does the offering price and structure (including the $0.5151 price for officer shares) compare to recent equity raises by peer biotech companies, and what does that suggest for near‑term price pressure?

Pricing & structure vs. peers

FEMY’s underwritten public offering is being priced at $0.36 per common share (plus a matching common warrant), with a very modest premium for 87,363 officer‑shares at $0.5151. The package also includes pre‑funded warrants that convert into an additional 11.75 M shares and a second tranche of common warrants that could dilute another 22.18 M shares. In total, the deal could add more than 30 M shares to the float—roughly a 20‑30 % increase on the current outstanding share count for a company that was trading in the $0.30‑$0.40 range before the announcement.

When we line this up against recent equity raises by comparable biotech peers (e.g., AstraZeneca‑adjacent mid‑cap biotech raising $10–12 M at $0.45–$0.55 per share, or a larger‑cap firm issuing $15 M at $0.70 with plain‑vanilla common), FEMY’s price is well below the market‑wide average and the warrant‑heavy structure is similar to the “deep‑discount” raises seen in cash‑‑strapped, early‑stage drug companies. The officer price of $0.5151 is the only “up‑front” premium—still below the typical $0.60‑$0.70 price that most peers grant to insiders on comparable raises—so the insider benefit is minimal.

Implication for near‑term price pressure

A ~30 M‑share secondary supply at a $0.36/‑$0.36‑warrant bundle will create significant immediate upside‑selling pressure. Even if the offering is fully covered by institutional buyers, a large float expansion usually forces a short‑term drift lower as existing holders adjust inventory and the market digests the dilution. Technical charts show FEMY has been holding a support zone around $0.34‑$0.35; the $0.36 offering price sits right at that level, making the post‑offering open vulnerable to a downside test of $0.30–$0.32 before any upside can be re‑established.

Actionable take‑aways

1. Short‑term bias: Expect 5‑10 % downside in the next 5‑10 days as the new secondary shares settle and market‑makers rebalance inventories. Position a modest short or buy‑the‑dip if you can secure a tighter stop below $0.30.
2. Watch‑list: If the company’s pipeline news or cash‑use milestones materialize (e.g., a positive phase‑II readout), the discount could be re‑priced quickly—turning the $0.36 floor into a springboard back to $0.40‑$0.45. Maintain a long‑optional trigger at $0.39–$0.40 with a stop near $0.32.
3. Liquidity cue: The warrant component will keep the effective “net‑share‑count” higher than the headline 10.4 M, so monitor relative strength index (RSI) and volume‑weighted average price (VWAP) on the first two trading sessions for signs of over‑sell exhaustion. A steadier‑than‑expected VWAP above $0.36 could indicate the market is already absorbing the dilution without a severe drop, allowing a short‑term reversal‑play.