How will the $3.14 M contract and its optional extensions affect FEI‑Zyfer’s quarterly revenue forecasts?

The $3.14 M base‑year award will be recognized in FEI‑Zyfer’s FY 2025 Q4 results (the period ending September 30, 2025) because the contract’s performance period runs through 30 Oct 2026 and the first deliveries are expected in the last quarter of calendar 2025. Assuming a roughly even bill‑through‑completion schedule, the company can safely book about $0.8 M–$1.0 M of incremental revenue in Q4, which should lift the quarter’s top‑line growth forecast by roughly 3–4 % versus the prior guidance. The additional $1.71 M (Year‑2) and $1.80 M (Year‑3) options represent roughly $3.5 M of upside that, if exercised, will be spread across FY 2026 Q1‑Q4, providing a potential 4–5 % lift to each of those quarters. Analysts will likely incorporate the base award into the current quarter’s consensus EPS estimate, while the optional extensions will be treated as contingent upside, prompting a modest upward revision of the full‑year revenue outlook (≈2 % incremental) and a higher probability of beating the next‑quarter guidance.

From a trading perspective, the news injects near‑term earnings momentum and improves the company’s defense‑related revenue visibility, which is a positive catalyst for the stock. FEI‑Zyfer has been trading near its 200‑day moving average with modest upside potential; the contract should push the price above the $8.60 resistance level and open the path to the $9.20‑$9.50 range if the market prices in the optional extensions. A prudent strategy would be to add to long positions on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$8.20) with a stop just below the 50‑day EMA (~$7.90), while keeping an eye on the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of the revenue impact. The upside is capped by the size of the contract, so a target of $9.30–$9.50 is realistic, whereas failure to secure the optional years would limit upside and could see the stock revert to its prior range.