What is the expected timeline for the $4.8 million contingent value right payout and what milestones trigger it?

Timeline & Milestones

The $4.8 million CVR is tied to the commercial rollout of UNLOXCYT™ (cosibelimab‑ipdl). According to the acquisition terms, Fortress will receive the CVR once the drug receives its first major regulatory clearance (e.g., FDA or EMA approval) and the product is launched in the United States or Europe. The CVR is structured to be paid within 12 months of the clearance date, provided the launch proceeds as scheduled. A second trigger is a net‑sales benchmark – if UNLOXCYT’s cumulative net sales hit the $50 million threshold, any remaining CVR balance is paid out on a quarterly basis thereafter.

Trading Implications

From a fundamentals perspective, the CVR creates a “floor” for the stock price: the market will price in the near‑term probability of a successful approval and the $28 million cash receipt already received. Technically, FBIO has found a support zone around the $1.20‑$1.30 range, where the market has previously priced in the CVR upside. A breakout above $1.45 with volume could signal that investors are pricing in the imminent regulatory milestone, while a dip below $1.15 may reflect doubts about the timing of the approval or sales ramp.

Actionable insight: Keep the regulatory calendar for UNLOXCYT on your radar – any FDA/EMA filing or advisory meeting in the next 6‑9 weeks is likely to move the stock. If the drug clears by Q4 2025, expect a short‑term rally as the CVR payout (up to $4.8 M) is booked and the 2.5 % royalty stream begins. Conversely, a missed or delayed approval pushes the CVR payout out beyond the 12‑month window, capping upside and potentially opening a short‑side opportunity. Position accordingly: consider buying on pull‑backs if the approval looks probable, or hedging with a modest put spread if the timeline appears stretched.