What is the expected timeline to move from drilling to production, and how might this influence market expectations for nickel supply?

Timeline from drilling to production

The recent Phase 2 drill results from First Atlantic Nickel (FAN) are still at the very early end of the development chain—raw‐material discovery and initial metallurgical testing. In a typical nickel‑centric project, moving from a successful drill program to commercial production normally takes 2‑3 years: (1) a 12‑month feasibility‑study and permitting phase, (2) a 12‑month engineering/permitting window for a definitive feasibility and a final investment decision (FID), and (3) 12–18 months of construction and commissioning of a processing plant. Even with the strong 1.27 % Ni (1.69 % Cr) result and high recovery (up to 81 % via DTR), First Atlantic will still need to complete a full resource estimate, secure financing and obtain the necessary environmental permits before any FID can be announced. Realistically, the earliest commercial start‑up is therefore mid‑2026 to early‑2027, assuming no major financing or regulatory setbacks.

Market expectations for nickel supply

The drill success reinforces the long‑run supply case for the RPM zone, but it does not change near‑term market fundamentals. Nickel demand is still driven by EV‑battery and stainless‑steel consumption, with a projected deficit of 200–250 kt in 2025‑2028. The news will likely soften short‑term bearish sentiment on nickel because it adds a credible new source that could come on‑line in the 2026‑2028 window—exactly when the supply gap is expected to peak. Traders should therefore:

1. Maintain a modest bullish bias on nickel‑related equities or ETFs (e.g., NICK ETF, major nickel miners) if they already have exposure, because the drill results help underpin future supply and could cushion price declines if the market is oversold.
   
2. Watch for upcoming milestones—a 2024‑2025 resource update, FID announcement, or financing round—because each of these triggers can shift the implied timing of new supply and trigger a re‑pricing of the market. A confirmed FID in 2024‑2025 would compress the timeline and could trigger a short‑term rally in nickel prices and a run‑up in FAN’s stock. Conversely, delays or funding shortfalls would keep the current supply‑tight narrative intact and support the existing bullish outlook for nickel.
   

In short, the drill data improve the medium‑term supply narrative but do not materially impact the current price outlook; traders should position for a mid‑2026 + new‑supply catalyst while keeping exposure to the current tight‑market fundamentals.