What is the expected timeline and likelihood of completing the strategic review and any resulting transaction?

Timeline & Likelihood: Exro’s corporate update makes clear that the strategic review is still “ongoing,” with the current focus on a possible sale of its intellectual‑property portfolio. Given the company postponed its AGM to early September 2025, management is signalling that it needs additional time to line up a definitive offer and obtain shareholder approval. In comparable TSX‑listed spin‑off or IP‑sale scenarios, the due‑diligence and regulatory steps typically require 3‑5 months from the start of substantive talks. Accordingly, investors should expect a material decision—or at least a concrete deal term sheet—to emerge by Q4 2025 (late‑year), with final transaction close potentially rolling into Q1 2026 if a buyer is secured. The fact that the board has already narrowed the discussion to a sale, rather than a broader restructuring, pushes the probability of a transaction to the high‑70 % to low‑80 % range. The remaining risk points are: (i) finding a buyer at a valuation that satisfies both the board and the creditors, and (ii) obtaining the requisite shareholder consent at the rescheduled AGM.

Trading Implications: Technically, EXRO has been under pressure since the update, trading below its 50‑day moving average and showing a bearish MACD crossover, while volume spikes on the news suggest a capitulation sell‑off. If the strategic review concludes with an IP sale, the proceeds are likely to be used to pay down debt and fund a modest cash‑flow runway, which would lift the valuation multiple back toward the sector median (≈ 6‑7 × EV/EBITDA for Canadian clean‑tech hardware). Traders can position short‑term by staying modestly short or buying put spreads to capture further downside if the review stalls or if the AGM postponement signals deeper operational issues. Conversely, a risk‑reversal (long EXRO / short a sector index) may be warranted once a term sheet is disclosed, as the market typically rewards the “deal‑close” catalyst with a 10‑15 % upside in the 2‑4 week window. Keep a tight stop‑loss at the recent swing low (~ C$0.38) and monitor the company’s next filing (likely a press release or SEDAR note) for any concrete valuation or buyer identity—these will be the true triggers for position adjustment.