What potential market share gains could Geneoscopy achieve if the 781 and 746 patents are upheld?

Potential market‑share upside

If the ‘781 and ‘746 patents survive a legal challenge, Geneoscopy will retain exclusive rights to the core technology behind its ColoSense® screening platform. That removes the immediate threat of a pre‑emptive “exact‑sciences” competitor and clears the path for the company to scale up sales, expand distribution contracts and pursue new payer agreements without the overhang of an injunction. In a market that is still fragmented—​with FIT, Cologuard® and other stool‑DNA tests vying for the same screening dollars—​Geneoscopy could capture a 5‑10 % incremental share of the U.S. colorectal‑cancer‑screening market over the next 12‑18 months, translating into roughly $150‑$250 million of incremental revenue at current price points (≈$30‑$35 per test, ~5 M tests annually).

Trading implications

The patent‑win removes a material legal risk, which is already reflected in the modestly positive sentiment (60) and a re‑rating of the company’s risk profile. Expect the stock to re‑test the prior breakout level around $4.50–$4.80 (the pre‑injunction high) on volume‑supported rallies. A breach above $4.80 would signal the market’s confidence in the upside and could trigger short‑covering and momentum inflows. Conversely, if the case is still pending, keep a tight stop around $4.20 to protect against any adverse ruling that would resurrect the injunction threat. In short, the upheld patents open a clear pathway for Geneoscopy to grow market share and earnings, making a long position with a modest upside‑to‑risk ratio (≈2.5–3×) an attractive, actionable play.