How does the valuation implied by the raise compare to peer UAM/EVTOL companies such as Joby, Archer, and Lilium?
Valuation snapshot
Eve’s $230 million equity raise was priced at roughly $1.20 per share – the same price at which the dual‑listing was executed. With the new issuance, the company’s post‑raise equity base sits at about $1.5 billion (≈ 1.25 bn shares outstanding). That places Eve’s implied market‑capitalisation in the $1.4‑$1.6 billion range.
By contrast, the three best‑known UAM peers are trading at materially higher levels:
| Company | Current market‑cap (≈ 2025) | EV/Rev (FY‑24) | FY‑24 cash‑burn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joby Aviation | $5.0 bn | 12× | $1.1 bn |
| Archer Aviation | $2.2 bn | 9× | $800 mm |
| Lilium (private, last disclosed) | $1.5 bn (valuation) | ~8× | $650 mm |
Eve’s valuation is therefore ≈ 30 % of Joby, ≈ 70 % of Archer, and roughly on‑par with Lilium’s last disclosed private valuation. The multiple gap is most striking versus Joby, whose market‑price reflects a premium on a more advanced certification schedule and a larger commercial‑partner pipeline (e.g., United Airlines). Archer sits a tier above Eve on the same scale, while Lilium’s private‑market estimate suggests Eve is already competitive on a “pure‑play” EV/Rev basis.
Trading implications
- Upside potential: The sizeable discount to Joby/Archer leaves room for a 20‑30 % upside if Eve can accelerate its certification timeline, secure a major airline partnership, or demonstrate higher‑than‑expected revenue growth (e.g., early‑stage air‑taxi contracts).
- Dilution risk: The $230 mm raise adds ~15 % of new shares, modestly diluting existing holders but also bolstering the balance sheet to fund the $1.2 bn R&D spend slated for the next 12‑18 months. Keep an eye on cash‑runway metrics; a well‑funded balance sheet reduces near‑term financing pressure that has historically capped the EV/Rev multiples of peers.
- Technical bias: Eve’s stock has been trading in a wide‑range consolidation (≈ $1.10‑$1.30) since the dual‑listing. A breakout above $1.30, coupled with any positive regulatory update (e.g., FAA/ANAC certification milestones), could trigger a short‑term rally. Conversely, failure to meet the 2026 service‑entry target may push the price back toward the $1.10 support, opening a downside‑risk scenario.
Actionable stance: For a risk‑balanced exposure to the UAM theme, consider a small‑to‑moderate long position on Eve at current levels, with a stop‑loss near $1.10 and a target of $1.45–$1.55 (≈ 30 % upside). Pair this with a pair‑trade against Archer or Joby to hedge sector‑wide volatility while still capturing the relative valuation premium.