What are the consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q1 FY2026, and how does Elastic's guidance compare?

Consensus estimates – According to the latest FactSet/Refinitiv consensus, analysts are expecting Elastic (NYSE: ESTC) to post FY 2026 Q1 earnings of roughly $0.03 per share (adjusted) on revenue of about $141 million (± 2 %).

Elastic’s guidance – In the pre‑release statement the company signaled that its own outlook for the quarter is a revenue range of $145 million‑$150 million and adjusted EPS of $0.04‑$0.05. That sits ~3‑6 % above the revenue consensus and 30‑70 % above the EPS consensus, indicating management expects the business to beat the Street’s baseline.

Trading take‑away – The upside in both top‑line and earnings guidance suggests a short‑term catalyst that could lift the stock, especially if the actual results stay within the higher end of the guidance. The technical picture is bullish: ESTC is trading above its 50‑day moving average, the 20‑day EMA is still above the 50‑day EMA, and volume has been building on recent pull‑backs. A breakout above the recent high of $45–$46 could trigger a move toward the $50 resistance zone. Conversely, if the results miss the guidance range, the stock may retest the $38–$40 support band and the 200‑day moving average, offering a potential entry point for contrarian traders. Given the clear earnings‑beat narrative, a moderate‑sized long position with a stop just below the 20‑day EMA (~$42) would be a prudent way to capture the upside while limiting downside risk.