Size & timing compared with past programmes
The third tranche of the 2025 buy‑back is the latest installment of the multi‑year repurchase plan that Equinor launched in 2023. The original programme was approved for up to $2 billion across 2023‑2025, with the first two tranches (2023‑2024) each ranging roughly between $600 million and $800 million. The current third tranche – disclosed in the recent filing – is therefore in the same ball‑park as the earlier tranches, roughly $600‑$700 million, which places it slightly below the first tranche’s size but essentially consistent with the overall pacing of the overall $2 bn schedule. In timing terms, this is the first buy‑back activity slated for 2025, extending the programme a full year beyond the original 2024 cut‑off that analysts originally expected. In other words, Equinor is keeping the repurchase cadence steady, rather than front‑loading the program or abruptly expanding it.
Trading implications
The continuation of the buy‑back reinforces the company’s confidence in its cash‑flow generation and signals to the market that management still sees the shares as undervalued relative to the long‑term earnings outlook. Historically, each tranche announcement has sparked a 1‑2 % bump in the stock price on the day of the release, with the effect fading within a week as the market digests the incremental supply‑side shock. Technicals still show the 20‑day EMA holding above the 50‑day, and the stock is trading near the top of its 3‑month range, suggesting the immediate upside may be limited unless the buy‑back is larger than expected or the market’s risk appetite shifts.
Actionable take‑away
- Short‑term: If the stock pulls back 2‑3 % on any pull‑back after the announcement, a small‑scale “buy‑the‑dip” could be justified, with a target near the recent 20‑day EMA as a risk‑management level.
- Medium‑term: Keep an eye on the next quarterly earnings release; if cash‑flow remains strong enough to support the planned $2 bn programme, a longer‑term bullish stance may be warranted, especially as the buy‑back reduces free‑float and supports EPS.
- Risk: The buy‑back size is not dramatically larger than previous tranches, so any price rally will be modest; watch for broader energy‑sector sentiment (oil price, ESG pressures) which could dominate price action.