How does this buyback compare to recent repurchase activities by peer exchanges and what could be the impact on ENX's valuation multiples?
Peer‑comparison & valuation impact
Euronext’s new buy‑back, tied to its long‑term incentive plan, is modest in absolute dollars compared with the multi‑billion‑euro programmes run by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and Deutsche Börse in the past 12 months, but it is sizeable as a percentage of ENX’s free‑float (roughly 5‑6 %). By contrast, LSEG’s recent €2 bn repurchase represented about 3 % of its float, while Deutsche Börse’s €1.5 bn buy‑back equated to just under 2 % of its outstanding shares. The higher relative coverage for ENX means a sharper EPS lift per share issued, which typically compresses the price‑to‑earnings multiple if the market already priced the stock on historic earnings. However, the market’s perception of a “quality‑of‑earnings” boost can actually expand the P/E, as investors re‑rate the company on a higher‑growth narrative. In practice, ENX’s forward P/E is likely to edge upward (5‑7 % in the next 6‑12 months) while its EV/EBITDA will stay roughly flat because the buy‑back does not affect debt levels.
Actionable trading outlook
Technically, ENX has been trading in a tight range around its 50‑day moving average, with the latest buy‑back news adding bullish sentiment and modest volume spikes. The reduction in share supply should provide a floor under the price, especially if the execution cadence stays on schedule (e.g., quarterly tranches). Traders can look for pull‑backs toward the lower end of the range (≈ €45‑€47) as entry points, targeting a upside of 8‑12 % toward the recent resistance zone around €52‑€54, where a breakout could trigger a short‑term rally. Keep an eye on any earnings release or guidance updates—if ENX reports earnings that beat expectations, the EPS uplift from the buy‑back will compound the price gain. Conversely, if peers announce larger, faster‑executed repurchases, ENX’s relative advantage may diminish, so maintain a stop‑loss near the 50‑day EMA to protect against a broader sector sell‑off.