What is the expected market size and adoption rate for AC‑coupled battery systems in Australia?
Market size & adoption outlook
Industry research (Clean Energy Council, AEMO and BloombergNEF) projects Australia’s residential battery‑storage market to reach ≈ 12‑15 GW of installed capacity and roughly US$3‑4 bn in cumulative revenue by 2028. AC‑coupled systems—valued for their plug‑and‑play design, grid‑friendly inverter integration and ability to serve both single‑ and three‑phase homes—are expected to dominate the segment, capturing ≈ 60‑70 % of new installations over the 2025‑2030 horizon. That translates to ≈ 7‑10 GW of AC‑coupled capacity (≈ $2‑2.5 bn in sales) by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18‑20 %. The drivers are the rapid rollout of 3‑phase residential solar (≈ 30 % of new roof‑top PV), increasing demand for resilient backup (especially after recent grid‑stress events), and the cost advantage of AC‑coupled kits (no need for separate DC‑DC converters or separate inverter‑battery pairing).
Trading implications
Enphase’s launch of the all‑in‑one IQ Battery 5P with FlexPhase gives it a first‑mover edge in a market that is expected to grow > 15 % YoY in the next two years. The product’s support for both single‑ and three‑phase connections aligns with the 30 %+ of Australian homes that have three‑phase service, expanding the addressable base beyond the typical single‑phase residential market. Combined with the 70‑point sentiment rating and Enphase’s 25‑% year‑over‑year revenue growth in its battery‑division, the market‑size tailwinds justify a +12 % price target uplift for ENPH, assuming the company can capture ≥ 5 % of the AC‑coupled market (≈ 0.5 GW) within 12 months. Investors should watch inventory build‑up at Australian distributors, the rollout speed of FlexPhase‑compatible installers, and any policy incentives (e.g., NSW's “home battery rebate” extension). A breakout above the 50‑day SMA with volume exceeding 1 M shares could signal the start of a short‑to‑medium‑term rally; conversely, supply‑chain bottlenecks or a slowdown in rebate programs would be downside catalysts.