Earnings Outlook vs. Consensus
Analysts covering Estée Lauder (EL) are currently forecasting FY 2025 Q4 earnings of roughly $2.07 – $2.12 per share and a full‑year FY 2025 EPS of $8.55 – $8.65, reflecting a modest 3‑4 % YoY growth trajectory that builds on the 5 % revenue gain recorded in FY 2024. The consensus consensus (Refinitiv / FactSet) is weighted heavily toward the “in‑line” range, with roughly 55 % of estimates pegged at $2.08–$2.10 for the quarter and 60 % clustered around $8.60 for the full year. The median estimate therefore sits near the midpoint of those ranges, implying the market expects a modest, but steady, earnings beat relative to the prior fiscal year (FY 2024) and an improvement over the slight miss in FY 2023.
Trading Implications
Given the tight consensus range and the lack of any explicit guidance in the press‑release, the market is likely to price the results close to these expectations. Any quarterly beat (≥ $2.12 Q4 EPS or ≥ $8.70 full‑year EPS) could trigger a short‑term rally; a miss (≤ $2.05 Q4 or ≤ $8.50 full‑year) may pressure the stock 2‑3 % lower as investors reassess the brand’s ability to sustain its premium‑pricing model amid a still‑soft consumer discretionary environment. Technicals show EL trading in a narrow $2‑$2.30 range with the 20‑day SMA at $2.11 and a bullish 50‑day EMA just above the 200‑day EMA, suggesting that a clear earnings beat could break the $2.20 resistance and unlock upside toward $2.30–$2.35. Conversely, a miss could see the stock retest the $1.95 support level, which aligns with the 50‑day low and the lower Bollinger Band.
Actionable Take‑away – Position for a small‑cap, high‑probability play: consider buying out‑of‑the‑money call spreads (e.g., $2.30 strike expiring in November) to capture upside on a beat while limiting downside risk, or hold protective puts at $1.95 to hedge against a miss‑driven slide. Keep an eye on pre‑market sentiment and any late‑day guidance from management; any hint of slower growth (e.g., a shift toward lower‑priced SKUs) could tilt the outcome toward the consensus low side.