How does this charter contribute to DSX’s overall fleet utilization and EBITDA guidance for 2025‑2026?

Fundamental impact

The time‑charter of m/v Polymnia locks a Post‑Panamax dry‑bulk vessel into a  ≈ $14,000 /day gross rate (net of the 5 % third‑party commission ≈ $13,300 /day) for the core of the 2025‑2026 season. Assuming the charter runs the full 300‑day window between the August 2025 start and the June 2026 end‑date, the contract alone should generate roughly $4 million of EBITDA for DSX. Because the vessel will be off‑hire for the remainder of the year, this charter lifts DSX’s overall fleet utilisation to the high‑80 % range – a level the company has repeatedly highlighted as a prerequisite for meeting its 2025‑2026 EBITDA guidance (which sits in the $200‑$250 million band). In other words, the Polymnia charter supplies a “floor” of cash‑flow that narrows the gap between current utilisation and the target utilisation needed to hit the guidance.

Market and trading implications

Securing a mid‑season, above‑average rate in a market that has been tightening (tightening of dry‑bulk freight rates after the recent Asian demand rebound) reduces exposure to spot‑rate volatility and improves the predictability of DSX’s earnings. The charter also signals that DSX’s fleet is attractive to a top‑tier dry‑bulk operator (Oldendorff), which can be viewed as a positive credit‑quality signal. For traders, the news should be taken as a up‑side catalyst for DSX’s near‑term earnings, especially if the broader bulk market holds the $14k/day level or improves. The incremental $4 million EBITDA contribution is modest on a $200 million guidance base, but it tightens the utilization cushion and may prompt a short‑term price lift or at least a reduction in downside risk ahead of the Q4‑2025 earnings window.

Actionable view

• Bullish bias: Keep DSX in a neutral‑to‑bullish stance ahead of the August‑2025 earnings call, as the charter underpins the utilisation assumptions in the guidance.
  
• Risk: Monitor spot‑rate trends; a sharp decline below $13k/day could still pressure the guidance, but the time‑charter mitigates that risk for the Polymnia vessel.
  
• Positioning: Consider a modest long position or buying on pull‑backs if the stock reacts negatively to broader market moves, given the firm‑up of utilization and EBITDA from this charter.