When will the additional capacity be fully ramped up and how might that timing influence the company's guidance and competitive positioning? | DPRO (Aug 28, 2025) | Candlesense

When will the additional capacity be fully ramped up and how might that timing influence the company's guidance and competitive positioning?

When will the capacity be fully ramped‑up?

Draganfly’s press release does not set an exact date, but the typical lead‑time for commissioning new AS9100/ISO‑9001‑certified production lines with a contract‑manufacturing partner is 12‑18 months. Given that the announcement was made at the end of August 2025, analysts expect the first new factories to be at commercial‑ready status by the mid‑2026‑first‑quarter and the full multi‑site footprint to be operative by late 2026. The company will likely hit the “fully‑ramped” point when all added plants can collectively ship a steady volume of drones on a weekly basis, which is the period most investors watch for a meaningful impact on the top‑line.

Impact on guidance and competitive positioning

If Draganfly’s capacity comes online on schedule (mid‑2026), management can comfortably raise its FY 2026‑2027 revenue guidance, especially as U‑S‑made drone demand is being driven by tighter export‑control rules, Fed‑backed public‑safety projects and the “Buy‑American” procurement budget. A faster‑than‑expected ramp‑up would likely trigger a mid‑cycle earnings upgrade, prompting a bullish re‑rating from sell‑side strategists and a lift in the forward‑PE multiple. Conversely, any delay past late‑2026 would force the company to keep a more conservative outlook, potentially pressuring the stock on the downside and widening the discount to peers such as DJI‑partner manufacturers and emerging US‑drone startups.

Trading implications

* Short‑term: The market has priced in the expansion narrative, so the stock is currently trading on a modest upside‑bias. A pull‑back in the next 2‑4 weeks (e.g., on profit‑take or broader market weakness) could present a buy‑on‑dip at the current level, given the upside potential from a June‑2026 capacity lift.

* Medium‑term: Watch for the Q2‑2026 earnings call—management will likely disclose the exact ramp‑up status and any revised guidance. A confirmation that a majority of plants are at “full‑capacity” will be a catalyst for a price breakout. If guidance is upgraded, consider scaling in; if guidance stays flat, be prepared for a corrective move.

* Risk: The primary head‑risk is a supply‑chain or regulatory delay that pushes the full‑capacity date beyond late‑2026. Maintain a modest stop‑loss (≈8‑10 % below entry) to protect against that scenario.