When will the additional capacity be fully ramped up and how might that timing influence the company's guidance and competitive positioning?
When will the capacity be fully rampedâup?
Draganflyâs press release does not set an exact date, but the typical leadâtime for commissioning new AS9100/ISOâ9001âcertified production lines with a contractâmanufacturing partner is 12â18âŻmonths. Given that the announcement was made at the end of AugustâŻ2025, analysts expect the first new factories to be at commercialâready status by the midâ2026âfirstâquarter and the full multiâsite footprint to be operative by lateâŻ2026. The company will likely hit the âfullyârampedâ point when all added plants can collectively ship a steady volume of drones on a weekly basis, which is the period most investors watch for a meaningful impact on the topâline.
Impact on guidance and competitive positioning
If Draganflyâs capacity comes online on schedule (midâ2026), management can comfortably raise its FYâŻ2026â2027 revenue guidance, especially as UâSâmade drone demand is being driven by tighter exportâcontrol rules, Fedâbacked publicâsafety projects and the âBuyâAmericanâ procurement budget. A fasterâthanâexpected rampâup would likely trigger a midâcycle earnings upgrade, prompting a bullish reârating from sellâside strategists and a lift in the forwardâPE multiple. Conversely, any delay past lateâ2026 would force the company to keep a more conservative outlook, potentially pressuring the stock on the downside and widening the discount to peers such as DJIâpartner manufacturers and emerging USâdrone startups.
Trading implications
* Shortâterm: The market has priced in the expansion narrative, so the stock is currently trading on a modest upsideâbias. A pullâback in the next 2â4âŻweeks (e.g., on profitâtake or broader market weakness) could present a buyâonâdip at the current level, given the upside potential from a Juneâ2026 capacity lift.
* Mediumâterm: Watch for the Q2â2026 earnings callâmanagement will likely disclose the exact rampâup status and any revised guidance. A confirmation that a majority of plants are at âfullâcapacityâ will be a catalyst for a price breakout. If guidance is upgraded, consider scaling in; if guidance stays flat, be prepared for a corrective move.
* Risk: The primary headârisk is a supplyâchain or regulatory delay that pushes the fullâcapacity date beyond lateâ2026. Maintain a modest stopâloss (â8â10âŻ% below entry) to protect against that scenario.