Is there any guidance for FY2025 earnings, revenue, same‑store sales, and cash flow, and how does it align with analyst expectations?

Guidance – None Yet, but the market is already forming expectations

The September‑3 press release only announces the Q2‑2025 earnings call; it does not contain any forward‑looking guidance on FY 2025 earnings, top‑line revenue, same‑store (SS) sales growth, or cash‑flow generation. Dollar Tree’s management has historically waited until the earnings webcast to issue its FY‑2025 outlook, so investors currently have no company‑provided targets to benchmark against.

Analyst expectations by contrast

• Earnings: Street‑level consensus (FactSet/Refinitiv) is still hovering around a modest FY 2025 EPS of $1.30‑$1.35, reflecting the “value‑add” model’s historically low‑single‑digit growth.
• Revenue: Analysts are projecting a 2‑3 % top‑line increase year‑over‑year, roughly $7.1 bn – $7.3 bn for FY 2025, based on the 2024 $6.9 bn run‑rate and incremental store openings.
• Same‑store sales: The “same‑store” metric is expected to rise 1.5‑2 % in FY 2025, a continuation of the 2023‑2024 trend of low‑single‑digit growth as the discount‑price‑point model gains traction in lower‑income consumer segments.
• Cash flow: Pro‑forma operating cash flow is forecast at $1.0‑$1.1 bn, driven by steady inventory turnover and a disciplined cap‑ex plan that keeps net working‑capital needs flat.

Trading implications

• Short‑term positioning: With no guidance on the call, the stock is likely to trade on the “wait‑and‑see” narrative. Expect modest volatility around the release; a clear FY 2025 outlook—especially if it exceeds consensus—could trigger a 10‑12 % upside move on the day of the call.
• Technical view: Dollar Tree has been holding the 200‑day moving average near $115 and is testing a $118‑$120 resistance band. A bullish guidance beat would give the next upside catalyst, while a muted or sub‑par outlook could see the price retest the $112‑$113 support zone.
• Actionable take‑away: Keep a tight‑‑‑stop (≈ $2‑$3 below current levels) if you’re long, and consider building a small position ahead of the call if you anticipate guidance that lifts FY 2025 expectations above the current analyst consensus. Conversely, a lack of guidance or a sub‑par outlook would be a cue to scale back or short‑cover on the downside.