How sensitive is the company's financial performance to commodity price fluctuations and exchange‑rate movements? | DIV (Aug 06, 2025) | Candlesense

How sensitive is the company's financial performance to commodity price fluctuations and exchange‑rate movements?

Short answer:

The press‑release you quoted does not contain any explicit figures or qualitative statements about how Diversified Royalty Corp.’s (DIV) results would change if commodity prices or exchange rates moved. Consequently we cannot give a precise, numeric sensitivity (e.g., “a 10 % rise in oil price would lift net income by $X million”) from the information that is currently available.

What we can infer – and where you can find the details you need

Aspect Why it matters for DIV Typical way the company measures it Where to look for the numbers
Commodity‑price exposure DIV’s royalty streams are derived from the production of oil, natural gas and other minerals owned by its partner operators. The royalty percentage is usually fixed, so the revenue the company receives moves almost one‑for‑one with the underlying commodity price (adjusted for production volumes). • “Sensitivity to oil‑price changes” – often expressed as a % change in revenue or net earnings for a $10/​bbl move in WTI/​Brent.
• “Sensitivity to natural‑gas price changes” – usually quoted per $0.10 /MMBtu shift.
• “Production‑volume sensitivity” (because price impact is amplified when volumes rise).
• The Management’s Discussion & Analysis (MD&A) section of the Q2 2025 earnings release (or the full Form 40‑F/10‑K).
• The “Risk Factors” or “Forward‑looking statements” footnote that often lists a table titled “Sensitivity of earnings to changes in commodity prices.”
Exchange‑rate exposure DIV reports its results in Canadian dollars (CAD). A significant portion of its royalty income is earned in U.S. dollars (USD) because most of the underlying oil‑ and gas‑producing assets are located in the United States. Consequently, a weaker CAD relative to the USD boosts reported revenue and earnings, while a stronger CAD depresses them. • “FX sensitivity” – usually expressed as the impact on earnings (or cash flow) for a 5 % move in the USD/CAD rate.
• “Currency‑translation effect” – a line item in the reconciliation of net income to cash flow that shows the amount of gain/loss purely from FX movements during the quarter.
• The Notes to the Financial Statements (particularly the “Foreign‑currency translation” note).
• The MD&A discussion on “Currency risk” or “Impact of foreign‑exchange rates.”

How to interpret the typical sensitivity disclosures (if you locate them)

  1. Commodity‑price sensitivity tables

    • Example: “A $10 increase in WTI crude price is estimated to increase Adjusted EBITDA by $12 million (≈ 5 %).”
    • Such tables let you back‑out a rough elasticity: ΔRevenue / ΔPrice. If the table shows a $10‑per‑bbl move equals a $20‑million change in revenue, the implied elasticity is 2 × (Revenue/Price).
  2. FX‑sensitivity tables

    • Example: “A 5 % appreciation of the CAD versus the USD would reduce Adjusted EBITDA by $8 million (≈ 3 %).”
    • This tells you the dollar‑impact per percentage‑point move (e.g., $1.6 million per 1 % CAD appreciation).
  3. Combined effect

    • Because the two drivers are largely independent, analysts often run a “stress‑test” where they simultaneously apply a commodity‑price shock (e.g., oil – $15/bbl) and a currency shock (e.g., CAD + 10 %). The net effect is generally the sum of the two separate impacts, unless the company has hedges that offset one or the other.

Why the press release likely does contain this information (even if it’s not visible in the excerpt)

  • Regulatory requirement – Canadian public companies must disclose in their quarterly earnings releases how their results would be affected by reasonable changes in commodity prices and exchange rates.
  • Investor‑communication practice – For a royalty‑focused business, sensitivity tables are key material for investors who need to understand the volatility inherent to the model.

Therefore, the full press‑release (or the accompanying “Supplementary Information” PDF) almost certainly includes a “Sensitivity to commodity price and foreign‑exchange fluctuations” section.


What to do next

  1. Retrieve the complete Q2 2025 earnings release

    • Visit DIV’s investor‑relations web‑site (e.g., https://www.diversifiedroyalty.com/investors/financial‑reports).
    • Look for a file named something like DIV_Q2_2025_Results.pdf or the Form 40‑F/10‑K filing for the quarter.
  2. Locate the sensitivity tables

    • Search the PDF for keywords: “sensitivity,” “price impact,” “exchange‑rate,” “USD/CAD,” “commodity price.”
    • The tables are usually placed near the end of the MD&A or in a separate “Risk Factors” annex.
  3. Quantify the impact

    • Once you have the numbers, you can calculate:
      • Elasticity = (Change in Revenue á Baseline Revenue) á (Change in Commodity Price á Baseline Price)
      • FX impact per % = (ΔEBITDA á % change in USD/CAD).
  4. Cross‑check with historical data

    • Compare the Q2 2025 sensitivities with those disclosed for Q2 2024 or Q2 2023 to see whether the company’s exposure is increasing (e.g., higher proportion of U.S.‑based royalties) or decreasing (e.g., more hedging, diversification into non‑oil commodities).

Bottom line (based on what is publicly known)

  • Commodity prices are the primary driver of DIV’s revenue and earnings; a modest swing in oil or natural‑gas prices can materially swing the company’s top‑line because royalties are generally a fixed percentage of production revenue.
  • Exchange‑rate movements also matter, especially the USD/CAD rate, because most of the underlying production is denominated in USD while the company reports in CAD. The net effect can be several million dollars for a 5‑10 % move in the exchange rate.
  • Exact sensitivities (e.g., “$10/bbl oil‑price change → $X million impact on Adjusted EBITDA”) are not disclosed in the excerpt you provided, but they are required to be disclosed in the full filing. You’ll need to consult the complete Q2 2025 results to obtain those precise figures.