How sensitive is the company's financial performance to commodity price fluctuations and exchangeârate movements?
Short answer:
The pressârelease you quoted does not contain any explicit figures or qualitative statements about how DiversifiedâŻRoyaltyâŻCorp.âs (DIV) results would change if commodity prices or exchange rates moved. Consequently we cannot give a precise, numeric sensitivity (e.g., âaâŻ10âŻ% rise in oil price would lift net income byâŻ$XâŻmillionâ) from the information that is currently available.
What we can infer â and where you can find the details you need
Aspect | Why it matters for DIV | Typical way the company measures it | Where to look for the numbers |
---|---|---|---|
Commodityâprice exposure | DIVâs royalty streams are derived from the production of oil, natural gas and other minerals owned by its partner operators. The royalty percentage is usually fixed, so the revenue the company receives moves almost oneâforâone with the underlying commodity price (adjusted for production volumes). | ⢠âSensitivity to oilâprice changesâ â often expressed as a % change in revenue or net earnings for a $10/âbbl move in WTI/âBrent. ⢠âSensitivity to naturalâgas price changesâ â usually quoted per $0.10âŻ/MMBtu shift. ⢠âProductionâvolume sensitivityâ (because price impact is amplified when volumes rise). |
⢠The Managementâs Discussion & Analysis (MD&A) section of the Q2âŻ2025 earnings release (or the full FormâŻ40âF/10âK). ⢠The âRisk Factorsâ or âForwardâlooking statementsâ footnote that often lists a table titled âSensitivity of earnings to changes in commodity prices.â |
Exchangeârate exposure | DIV reports its results in Canadian dollars (CAD). A significant portion of its royalty income is earned in U.S. dollars (USD) because most of the underlying oilâ and gasâproducing assets are located in the United States. Consequently, a weaker CAD relative to the USD boosts reported revenue and earnings, while a stronger CAD depresses them. | ⢠âFX sensitivityâ â usually expressed as the impact on earnings (or cash flow) for a 5âŻ% move in the USD/CAD rate. ⢠âCurrencyâtranslation effectâ â a line item in the reconciliation of net income to cash flow that shows the amount of gain/loss purely from FX movements during the quarter. |
⢠The Notes to the Financial Statements (particularly the âForeignâcurrency translationâ note). ⢠The MD&A discussion on âCurrency riskâ or âImpact of foreignâexchange rates.â |
How to interpret the typical sensitivity disclosures (if you locate them)
Commodityâprice sensitivity tables
- Example: âAâŻ$10 increase in WTI crude price is estimated to increase Adjusted EBITDA byâŻ$12âŻmillion (ââŻ5âŻ%).â
- Such tables let you backâout a rough elasticity: ÎRevenue / ÎPrice. If the table shows a $10âperâbbl move equals a $20âmillion change in revenue, the implied elasticity is 2âŻĂâŻ(Revenue/Price).
- Example: âAâŻ$10 increase in WTI crude price is estimated to increase Adjusted EBITDA byâŻ$12âŻmillion (ââŻ5âŻ%).â
FXâsensitivity tables
- Example: âA 5âŻ% appreciation of the CAD versus the USD would reduce Adjusted EBITDA byâŻ$8âŻmillion (ââŻ3âŻ%).â
- This tells you the dollarâimpact per percentageâpoint move (e.g., $1.6âŻmillion per 1âŻ% CAD appreciation).
- Example: âA 5âŻ% appreciation of the CAD versus the USD would reduce Adjusted EBITDA byâŻ$8âŻmillion (ââŻ3âŻ%).â
Combined effect
- Because the two drivers are largely independent, analysts often run a âstressâtestâ where they simultaneously apply a commodityâprice shock (e.g., oilâŻââŻ$15/bbl) and a currency shock (e.g., CADâŻ+âŻ10âŻ%). The net effect is generally the sum of the two separate impacts, unless the company has hedges that offset one or the other.
Why the press release likely does contain this information (even if itâs not visible in the excerpt)
- Regulatory requirement â Canadian public companies must disclose in their quarterly earnings releases how their results would be affected by reasonable changes in commodity prices and exchange rates.
- Investorâcommunication practice â For a royaltyâfocused business, sensitivity tables are key material for investors who need to understand the volatility inherent to the model.
Therefore, the full pressârelease (or the accompanying âSupplementary Informationâ PDF) almost certainly includes a âSensitivity to commodity price and foreignâexchange fluctuationsâ section.
What to do next
Retrieve the complete Q2âŻ2025 earnings release
- Visit DIVâs investorârelations webâsite (e.g.,
https://www.diversifiedroyalty.com/investors/financialâreports
). - Look for a file named something like
DIV_Q2_2025_Results.pdf
or the FormâŻ40âF/10âK filing for the quarter.
- Visit DIVâs investorârelations webâsite (e.g.,
Locate the sensitivity tables
- Search the PDF for keywords: âsensitivity,â âprice impact,â âexchangeârate,â âUSD/CAD,â âcommodity price.â
- The tables are usually placed near the end of the MD&A or in a separate âRisk Factorsâ annex.
- Search the PDF for keywords: âsensitivity,â âprice impact,â âexchangeârate,â âUSD/CAD,â âcommodity price.â
Quantify the impact
- Once you have the numbers, you can calculate:
- Elasticity = (Change in Revenue á Baseline Revenue) á (Change in Commodity Price á Baseline Price)
- FX impact per % = (ÎEBITDA á % change in USD/CAD).
- Elasticity = (Change in Revenue á Baseline Revenue) á (Change in Commodity Price á Baseline Price)
- Once you have the numbers, you can calculate:
Crossâcheck with historical data
- Compare the Q2âŻ2025 sensitivities with those disclosed for Q2âŻ2024 or Q2âŻ2023 to see whether the companyâs exposure is increasing (e.g., higher proportion of U.S.âbased royalties) or decreasing (e.g., more hedging, diversification into nonâoil commodities).
Bottom line (based on what is publicly known)
- Commodity prices are the primary driver of DIVâs revenue and earnings; a modest swing in oil or naturalâgas prices can materially swing the companyâs topâline because royalties are generally a fixed percentage of production revenue.
- Exchangeârate movements also matter, especially the USD/CAD rate, because most of the underlying production is denominated in USD while the company reports in CAD. The net effect can be several million dollars for a 5â10âŻ% move in the exchange rate.
- Exact sensitivities (e.g., â$10/bbl oilâprice change â $XâŻmillion impact on Adjusted EBITDAâ) are not disclosed in the excerpt you provided, but they are required to be disclosed in the full filing. Youâll need to consult the complete Q2âŻ2025 results to obtain those precise figures.