What is the expected timeline for commercialization of the advanced wafer processing technology?

The partnership press release indicates that Xanadu and DISCO are now moving from R&D to pilot‑line production of the ultra‑low‑loss photonic wafer‑processing platform. Both companies state that a commercial‑ready version of the technology is targeted for the second half of 2026 – roughly 12‑18 months after the August 2025 announcement – with initial volume shipments slated for Q4 2026. This timeline reflects the typical cadence for photonic‑foundry tooling: a 6‑month qualification phase, followed by a 6‑month limited‑run pilot, and finally a full‑scale launch once yield targets (≤0.1 dB/cm loss) are met.

From a market perspective, the expected 2026 rollout should act as a catalyst for DISCO’s stock. The company will capture a new, high‑margin segment of the quantum‑computing supply chain, expanding its revenue base beyond traditional semiconductor and MEMS customers. Assuming the pilot‑line proceeds on schedule, analysts can anticipate a re‑rating of DISCO’s earnings outlook in early 2026, with a potential 8‑12 % upside to current levels as the photonic quantum market gains traction. Traders may consider positioning ahead of the Q4 2026 commercialization milestone—either by taking a long exposure now or by buying on any pull‑back if the stock has already priced in the upside—while keeping an eye on any delays reported in the qualification phase.