What is the expected impact of the tender offer on the price and yield of the remaining outstanding notes, if any are left after the offer?

Impact on price and yield

A cash tender offer is effectively a “buy‑back” at a fixed price that is usually set at a modest premium to the notes’ prevailing market price. When the offer is announced, market participants price the securities in anticipation of the out‑flow of cash, so the note’s price will typically rise toward the tender price and the yield will compress to the level implied by that price.

If the tender does not cover the entire issue—i.e., a residual amount of notes remains after the offer—those notes will be left on the market with a new floor price set by the tender price. Market makers and investors will bid up the remaining supply, trying to match the tender price, because any holder can still submit a tender at that level. Consequently, the remaining notes will trade at a premium to pre‑announcement levels, and their yield will fall to roughly the same level as the tender‑price‑implied yield (the coupon divided by the higher price). The compression will be most pronounced for the series that are most heavily targeted by the tender, while less‑liquid series may see a slightly slower price adjustment.

Trading implications

• Short‑term: Go long the outstanding notes (or the related ETF/ETN) on the expectation that the price will be bid up to the tender level and the yield will narrow. The move is usually swift—often 1‑2 % price uplift within a few days of the announcement—so a quick‑entry, short‑duration position can capture the price‑gain.
  
• Risk management: If the tender fully redeems the series, the notes will be delisted and the price will cease to exist; monitor the tender acceptance schedule and the total amount tendered versus the issue size.
  
• Yield‑play: For yield‑seeking investors, the tender‑induced yield compression reduces the attractiveness of the notes relative to comparable credit. Consider reallocating the capital into higher‑yielding securities or using the price‑rise to lock in a tighter spread before the notes are retired.
  

In short, any notes left after the HF Sinclair cash tender will see higher prices and lower yields as the market aligns with the tender price, creating a short‑term upside opportunity for long‑biased traders and a yield‑compression risk for yield‑focused investors.