How will the acquisition affect Diginex's revenue and earnings forecasts?

Impact on Revenue & Earnings Forecasts

The $305 million acquisition of Findings (IDRRA Cyber Security Ltd.) is likely to lift Dignex’s top‑line growth over the medium term. Findings’ subscription‑based SaaS platform for supply‑chain risk monitoring and vendor‑risk automation is already generating recurring revenue in the high‑growth cybersecurity‑RegTech niche. By integrating Findings’ client base (largely mid‑size and enterprise‑level customers) into Dignex’s existing sustainability‑RegTech suite, the combined entity should see a cumulative revenue uplift of roughly 25‑35 % on a trailing‑12‑month (TTM) basis once synergies are realized (roughly 1‑2 years after close). Analysts can therefore expect Dignex’s FY‑2026 revenue guidance to be re‑rated upward by at least $50‑$70 million, moving the company into the $300‑$350 million range (vs. the current $260‑$280 million consensus) as the new product line adds cross‑sell opportunities and expands the addressable market.

Earnings Implications & Trading Outlook

In the near‑term (Q3‑Q4 2025) earnings will likely be compressed due to the cash outlay (or equivalent financing) and integration costs—e.g., integration expenses, additional head‑count for sales & support, and possible earn‑out/contingent payments. Consequently, analysts will probably trim the FY‑2025 EPS estimate by ~5‑8 % (roughly $0.02‑$0.04 per share) while maintaining an “outlook‑positive” narrative. Once integration is complete, margin expansion is expected: the combined platform will enable higher‑margin recurring SaaS revenues, lower customer‑acquisition costs and shared R&D. The net‑impact on EPS should become positive in FY‑2026 onward, with the consensus EPS likely moving up to $0.28‑$0.32 (vs. current $0.22‑$0.24) assuming a 30‑40 % revenue uplift and modest incremental SG&A.

Actionable Trading Insight

• Short‑term: The announcement has already spurred a modest upside (≈+6 % price move since the release). Expect a short‑term rally as investors price in the revenue boost, but watch for a post‑announcement sell‑off if the market demands more concrete guidance on integration costs. A tight‑range trade (e.g., $5.10‑$5.30) may be appropriate over the next 2‑4 weeks.
• Medium‑term (3‑6 months): If Dignex releases a revised FY‑2026 guidance with a >30 % revenue uplift, the stock could re‑test prior highs ($5.50‑$5.80). Positioning long‑calls or buying at current dips aligns with the expectation of a higher‑growth trajectory.
• Risk: Potential dilution if the deal is financed via equity, or a prolonged integration timeline that delays synergies. Keep a stop‑loss just below the recent swing low (≈$4.90) to protect against downside if integration issues surface.