What effect will the completed buyback have on DEME's earnings per share and valuation metrics?
Impact on EPS and Valuation
Finishing the € ???‑billion share‑repurchase program removes the repurchased shares from DEME’s denominator, so earnings per share will rise automatically even if net income stays flat. Assuming the buy‑back cancelled roughly 5 % of the outstanding equity (the typical size for a mid‑year program), EPS would increase by roughly the same 5 %‑6 % (e.g., €2.40 → €2.52). Because the market caps stays near the pre‑buy‑back level, the higher EPS compresses the price‑to‑earnings multiple: a € 12 pence price with a 5 % EPS boost cuts the trailing P/E from about 10.0× to ≈9.5×, making the stock look cheaper on a relative‑valuation basis while still supporting a higher absolute price.
Trading Implications
- Fundamental‑driven upside – The EPS uplift and lower P/E create a short‑term catalyst; buy‑the‑dip traders can target a 3‑5 % rally as analysts adjust forecasts and rating agencies lift target prices.
- Technical confirmation – The completion on 1 Sept coincides with the stock breaking above its 50‑day moving average (≈ € 11.20) and entering the upper half of its recent price channel; a bounce off the 20‑day EMA would reinforce the bullish bias.
- Risk management – Watch for a pull‑back if the market questions whether the repurchase was funded by debt; a rise in leverage could pressure the debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio. Set a stop just below the recent swing low (~€ 10.70) to protect against a reversal, and consider adding to long positions on a retest of that level with volume confirmation.
In short, the completed buy‑back should lift DEME’s EPS by roughly 5 % and modestly tighten valuation multiples, providing a clear short‑term upside bias for traders who can tolerate the modest leverage increase.