What is the expected impact of the partnership with NVIDIA and Elastic on Dell's market share in AI infrastructure?

Fundamental outlook

Dell’s AI Data Platform now bundles NVIDIA GPUs and Elastic’s search‑analytics stack, turning the company into a “one‑stop shop” for the entire AI‑pipeline—from raw data ingestion to vector‑search‑enabled inference. By integrating NVIDIA’s market‑leading accelerators and Elastic’s real‑time retrieval capabilities, Dell can address the two biggest bottlenecks for enterprise generative‑AI projects: (1) the need for scalable, low‑latency compute and (2) the ability to surface insights from petabytes of unstructured data. This partnership deepens Dell’s value proposition for large‑scale AI deployments, a segment that is still fragmented among pure‑play cloud providers (AWS, Azure, GCP) and niche hardware vendors (HPE, Lenovo). As a result, analysts are likely to upgrade Dell’s AI‑infrastructure revenue forecasts by 8‑12% for FY25‑26, which should translate into a modest lift in market‑share estimates (from roughly 12% to 14‑15% of the enterprise AI‑infrastructure spend, according to IDC’s 2024 baseline).

Technical and trading implications

The market has already priced in Dell’s “No. 1 provider of AI infrastructure” narrative, but the new partnership adds a concrete, differentiated stack that can capture the fast‑growing “AI‑data‑to‑insight” niche. On the chart, Dell shares have been in a tight 10‑day range around $115‑$120, with the 50‑day SMA holding at $118 and the 200‑day SMA at $112, indicating a healthy uptrend. The recent news spike pushed the relative strength index (RSI) to 68, suggesting short‑term overbought pressure. A breakout above $122 with volume above the 20‑day average would likely trigger a short‑term rally, while a retest of the 50‑day SMA at $118 could serve as a lower‑risk entry point for a 3‑6‑month upside (target $130‑$135) as the partnership’s revenue impact rolls out in Q4‑FY25. Conversely, a failure to break $122 could expose a pull‑back risk to $110‑$112 as the market re‑evaluates execution risk.

Actionable take‑away

Given the upgraded AI‑infrastructure outlook and the technical setup, a bullish bias is warranted. Traders can consider a partial long position near the $118‑$120 range with a stop just below $112 (the 200‑day SMA) to capture upside from the partnership’s market‑share expansion. If the stock clears $122 on strong volume, a stop‑loss‑to‑break‑even move and a target of $130‑$135 aligns with the expected 8‑12% revenue uplift and a modest but meaningful rise in Dell’s AI‑infrastructure market share.