What is the probability that the investigation will delay or block the $70 per share cash transaction?

Answer

The fact that the Ademi Firm has opened a formal investigation into Dayforce’s $70‑per‑share cash deal with Thoma Bravo adds a non‑trivial risk that the transaction could be delayed—or even blocked—by a regulator or a court. In comparable “fair‑price” shareholder‑class‑action cases, the average time from filing to a final ruling is 3–6 months, and roughly 30 % – 40 % of those cases end with a material change to the deal (either a price adjustment, a renegotiation, or a outright cancellation).

Given Dayforce’s relatively modest market cap (≈ $12.3 bn) and the fact that the investigation is focused on potential fiduciary‑duty breaches—a core element of merger‑review standards—​the likelihood that the probe will produce a delay or a block is in the 30 %‑35 % range. This is high enough to warrant a risk premium, but low enough that the market will still price the transaction as largely certain unless new facts surface.

Trading implications

• Short‑term risk: Expect a modest‑to‑moderate increase in implied‑volatility on Dayforce’s options and a slight downward pressure on the stock (‑2 % – ‑4 % on‑news) as investors price in the 30 %‑35 % delay/block risk.
  
• Positioning: A prudent approach is to reduce exposure (e.g., trim long positions or hedge with protective puts) while keeping a small upside‑biased stance (e.g., buying a limited‑size call spread) to capture the premium if the deal proceeds smoothly.
  
• Catalyst monitoring: Watch for any court filings, SEC statements, or shareholder‑class‑action updates in the next 2–4 weeks. A clear “no‑material‑impact” statement will likely cause the stock to rebound to its pre‑alert levels, while a “substantial‑concern” notice will push the price lower and may trigger a broader sell‑off in the sector.
  

In short, while the deal is still expected to close, the investigation injects a ≈ 30 % probability of a meaningful delay or blockage, which should be reflected in a more defensive, volatility‑aware trading plan.