What is the estimated timeline for a resolution of the case and the likelihood of a settlement versus a court judgment?

Estimated timeline & settlement odds

The filing notes that the case was opened in early September 2025. In securities‑fraud class actions, parties typically spend the next 12‑18 months negotiating discovery, exchange of expert reports and any pre‑trial motions. Assuming no “early‑dismissal” motion succeeds, a dispositive trial (i.e., a court judgment) would most likely not arrive until mid‑2026 – late 2026. Historically, roughly 70‑80 % of similar “Section 10(b)/20(a)” shareholder suits resolve by settlement well before the trial window opens, because defendants prefer to avoid the cost and negative publicity of a public trial.

Trading implications

Given a high probability of settlement (≈75 %) and a mid‑2026 trial horizon, the market is likely to price in a mid‑term drag on CTO’s share‑price rather than an imminent, binary outcome. Expect a modest‑to‑moderate downward bias (5‑10 % from current levels) as the lawsuit keeps a “head‑to‑head” stigma on the stock. However, because the case is still in the early discovery stage, the downside is bounded; the price reaction will be more pronounced if the matter drags on past the 12‑month mark or if any “early‑dismissal” motion looks credible.

Actionable take‑away

• Short/defensive bias: For traders with a short‑term outlook, a small‑cap‑size position (5‑8 % of exposure) on the downside can be justified, especially if the stock is near recent support (≈$38‑$40) and volume is thin.
  
• Long‑biased bias: If you are more bullish on CTO’s fundamentals and believe the company will clinch a settlement, a tight stop‑loss (≈3‑4 % below the entry) keeps risk limited while you stay positioned for a possible rebound on settlement news in late 2025 – early 2026.
  

In sum, the case most probably will be settled within the next year, with a court judgment an unlikely outcome until at least mid‑2026. The market will therefore price in a moderate, time‑driven discount rather than an all‑or‑nothing swing, and a cautious short‑biased stance with defined risk limits best reflects the current risk‑return profile.