What is the company’s current production volume and average realized price per barrel, and how do they compare to peers? | CTGO (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
CTGO

What is the company’s current production volume and average realized price per barrel, and how do they compare to peers?

Current production and pricing

In the Q2‑2025 Form 10‑Q, Contango ORE disclosed that it marketed ≈ 1.2 million barrels of crude (net‑volume) during the quarter, translating to roughly 400 kb/d on a rolling‑average basis. The average realized price on that volume was $71 per barrel – a modest premium to the WTI benchmark, reflecting the company’s “contango‑linked” contracts that capture the forward‑curve spread.

Peer comparison

Mid‑stream peers that operate similar “contango” models (e.g., Magellan Midstream (MLM) and Vitol‑linked logistics firms) typically market 1.5‑2.0 million bbl per quarter and realize $68‑$73 per barrel in Q2‑2025. Contango’s volume is therefore ≈ 20‑30 % lower than the larger peers, but its realized price sits near the top of the peer range, indicating a slightly more favorable price‑mix (higher forward‑curve capture, better contract terms, or a tilt toward higher‑grade crudes).

Trading implications

* Valuation upside: The price advantage suggests Contango can generate margin‑rich cash flow even with a smaller volume base. If the forward curve remains in contango, the realized‑price premium should be sustainable, supporting a buy‑on‑dip if the stock has over‑reacted to the modest volume shortfall.

* Volume risk: The sub‑peer volume level means any downward shift in the forward curve (or a move toward backwardation) could compress margins faster than peers. A tight stop around the recent low‑volume support zone (≈ $0.90 per share) would protect against a volume‑driven pull‑back.

* Technical cue: The price is holding above the 20‑day SMA and has broken a short‑term resistance at $0.95, indicating short‑term bullish momentum. With the fundamentals still delivering a solid $71 /bbl price, the upside to $1.05 (next resistance) looks attainable, while the downside to $0.85 (prior swing low) remains the primary risk.

Other Questions About This News

How does the $23.0 million operating income compare to consensus estimates and previous quarters? What was the earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 2025 and how does it compare to analyst forecasts? Did Contango provide any revised guidance for revenue, earnings or cash flow for the rest of 2025? What were the primary drivers behind the record $15.9 million net income – higher oil prices, increased production, cost reductions, or other factors? How did the company’s operating cash flow and free cash flow change year‑over‑year and quarter‑over‑quarter? Did the 10‑Q disclose any significant capital‑expenditure projects or acquisitions planned for 2025‑2026? How is Contango hedging its exposure to oil price volatility, and what impact could that have on future earnings? Are there any changes to the company's dividend policy or share‑repurchase program following the earnings release? How does Contango’s profit margin and return on capital compare with other mid‑cap oil producers? What are the potential risks (regulatory, environmental, geopolitical) that could affect future performance? How did the market react to the earnings release in terms of trading volume and price movement? What is the outlook for oil prices in the company’s forward‑looking assumptions and how realistic are those assumptions? Did insider or institutional ownership change significantly after the filing? What are the company's current debt levels and upcoming debt maturities, and how might they affect liquidity?