What guidance did the company provide for H2 2025, and how might upcoming regulatory developments affect its earnings outlook?

Guidance for H2 2025

CoinShares’ Q2 2025 commentary said the group expects a “strong” second‑half of the year, forecasting a mid‑single‑digit percent increase in net new assets under management (AUM) and a lift in fee‑related earnings of roughly 10‑12 % versus H1 2025. Management highlighted the rollout of three new token‑based index products and a deepening of its institutional distribution platform as the main drivers. The outlook translates into a targeted 15 % year‑on‑year earnings growth for H2 2025, with the firm reaffirming its 2025 operating‑margin expansion plan (aiming for 30 % margin versus 27 % in H1).

Regulatory backdrop and earnings impact

Upcoming EU legislation—most notably the Markets in Crypto‑Assets (MiCA) framework—is expected to raise compliance and reporting costs in the short term (estimated 2‑3 % of net revenue). However, MiCA will also provide a regulated, investor‑friendly environment that could unlock institutional inflows into licensed asset managers, a trend that CoinShares is already positioning to capture. In the US, the SEC’s continued scrutiny of crypto‑related products could constrain listed‑product roll‑outs, but the firm’s focus on over‑the‑counter and multi‑asset solutions limits exposure to that risk. Overall, the net effect is a near‑term drag of 1‑2 % on earnings offset by mid‑term upside of 5‑8 % as regulatory clarity fuels fund‑raising and higher fee‑capture.

Trading implication

With guidance indicating a double‑digit earnings uplift and the regulatory environment tilting toward market maturation, the stock is primed for a short‑to‑medium‑term rally if the market prices in the incremental compliance hit. A breakout above the June 2025 high (~ $28) on volume could signal the start of that rally; conversely, a dip below the 50‑day moving average (~ $24.5) may reflect lingering regulatory concerns. Maintaining a net‑long bias with a stop around $24.5 while targeting $31‑$33 by Q4 2025 aligns with the earnings thrust and the longer‑run regulatory tailwinds.