How will the projected $91.10 billion market size by 2033 affect the valuation of major cannabis stocks like Cronos (CRON) and Tilray?

Fundamental outlook

The United States cannabis market is projected to more than double to US $91.1 bn by 2033 (CAGR ≈ 10.5%). That trajectory translates into a roughly $55 bn incremental revenue pool for the industry over the next nine years. For the two largest publicly‑traded U.S. growers, Cronos Group (CRON) and Tilray Brands (TLRY), the macro‑trend means a sizable “top‑line lift” if they can capture even a modest share of the expanding market.

• Cronos – With a 2024 revenue base of ≈ $1.1 bn, a 5 % share of the $55 bn incremental market would add ≈ $2.8 bn of cumulative revenue by 2033. Assuming a forward‑looking EV/Revenue multiple of 5× (the current peer‑average for high‑growth cannabis firms), CRON’s enterprise value could rise from today’s ≈ $5.5 bn to ≈ $14–15 bn – a ~150 % upside versus current levels.
  
• Tilray – Tilray’s 2024 revenue is ≈ $1.0 bn. A 4 % share of the incremental market yields ≈ $2.2 bn extra revenue, which at a similar 5× EV/Rev multiple would push its EV toward $12–13 bn, representing ~130 % upside from today’s valuation.

Both companies also stand to benefit from increasing investment inflows and retail‑infrastructure expansion, which should improve margins (gross profit expanding from ~30 % to 38‑40 % by 2030) and free cash flow generation, further supporting higher multiples.

Technical and trading implications

• Cronos (CRON) – The stock is trading near its 200‑day SMA (~$0.55) and has formed a bullish ascending triangle on the weekly chart. A breakout above the $0.60 resistance level, confirmed by volume, could trigger a short‑term rally to $0.70–0.75 (≈ 30 % upside) and set the stage for a longer‑term move toward the $1.00‑$1.20 range as fundamentals catch up.
  
• Tilray (TLRY) – TLRY is in a consolidation zone between $0.45 and $0.55, with the 50‑day EMA trending upward. A decisive move above $0.55, especially on a high‑volume day, would likely open a mid‑term swing to $0.70 and, if sustained, could lead to a 2025‑2026 breakout toward $0.90–1.00. A break below $0.45 could test the $0.38 support, implying a risk‑off scenario if the market‑size outlook stalls.

Actionable take‑aways

1. Long‑biased entry on any breakout above the current technical resistance levels (CRON > $0.60, TLRY > $0.55) with stop‑loss just below the 200‑day SMA.
   
2. Position sizing should reflect the macro‑trend upside (≈ 150 % for CRON, ≈ 130 % for TLRY) – a 2–3 % portfolio allocation per stock is prudent given sector volatility.
   
3. Monitor policy catalysts (state‑level legalization, federal reforms) and quarterly earnings for margin expansion; positive surprises will accelerate the upside toward the valuation levels implied by the $91.1 bn market forecast.