Guidance recap: In its Q1 FY 2026 release, Car‑Mart reiterated the FY 2026 outlook it set at the beginning of the year – a mid‑single‑digit revenue increase (≈5‑7 % YoY) driven by continued same‑store sales growth and a modest expansion of its used‑car inventory footprint. The company also reaffirmed its adjusted earnings‑per‑share target of roughly $1.20‑$1.30 for the full fiscal year, along with an EBITDA margin target of just above 9 %. No material revisions were disclosed, and the firm indicated that operating expenses will stay in line with historical percentages of sales as the “new‑store” pipeline ramps.
Valuation implications: Keeping guidance unchanged after a solid first‑quarter performance tends to reinforce the current multiple‑based valuation. At the current price‑to‑earnings (≈13‑14× forward) and EV/EBITDA (≈7‑8×) levels, the FY 2026 EPS guidance supports a fair‑value range of $30‑$34 per share under a simple DCF/relative‑multiple framework. If the company can exceed its modest revenue‑growth and margin targets, we could see a 5‑8 % upside as the market re‑prices for higher multiples. Conversely, any miss on the EPS or margin floor could pressure the stock below its 20‑day moving average, opening short‑term entry points for contrarian traders. Technicals show the stock trading near the lower edge of its 100‑day Bollinger Band, so a clean beat on Q2 results would likely trigger a breakout rally, whereas a miss could accelerate a move toward the 50‑day EMA support.