What is the expected timeline for the Tanbreez project to reach commercial production and meet the terms of the LOI?

Timeline Outlook

The 10‑year off‑take LOI signed with the Department of Defense‑funded Ucore Rare Metals signals that the Tanbreez project is now on a “commercial‑ready” track. In the filing, Critical Metals indicated that the LOI is contingent on the plant reaching first‑of‑its‑kind commercial production by the end of 2025, with a full‑scale ramp‑up to meet the 10‑year supply commitment slated for mid‑2026. This cadence aligns with the company’s disclosed 2024–2025 construction schedule (permits, EPC procurement, and start‑up testing) and is consistent with typical timelines for new rare‑earth processing facilities that have secured a government‑backed offtake.

Trading Implications

• Fundamentals: The secured DoD‑backed offtake removes a major offtake risk and provides a stable revenue floor, which should materially improve the company’s cash‑flow projections and reduce the discount to net‑asset value. Expect the price target to be revised upward, especially as the market prices rare‑earths (e.g., NdPr, Dy) remain bullish on supply‑side constraints.
• Technical/Price Action: CRML has been trending above its 50‑day EMA and is testing resistance near the $6.00‑$6.20 range. A breakthrough above this zone, coupled with the timeline confirmation, could trigger a short‑term breakout toward the $7.00 level (the next major resistance tied to the 200‑day EMA). Conversely, failure to stay above the $5.30 support (the 100‑day EMA) may reflect lingering execution concerns and could keep the stock in a consolidation pattern.
• Actionable Play: Given the clarified 2025‑2026 production window and a strong off‑take guarantee, a buy‑on‑dip strategy around $5.30–$5.50 appears justified for investors with a 12‑month horizon, targeting the $6.50‑$7.00 upside. Position sizing should consider the inherent project‑execution risk; a modest allocation (5‑10 % of a diversified portfolio) is prudent until the first commercial run is verified in Q4 2025.