How does Salesforce's current guidance compare to analysts' consensus and to its main competitors?
Salesforce (CRM) walked away from its earnings call with FY 2025 revenue guidance that sits well under the Street’s consensus – roughly $30.6 billion versus the $30.8‑$31.0 billion analysts were modeling, a shortfall of about 0.7‑1.3 %. The company’s own internal outlook points to 5‑6 % top‑line growth, which is a step back from the 9‑10 % growth rate it delivered last year and below the 8‑9 % growth pace that the majority of sell‑side forecasts had been pricing in. By contrast, the cloud‑software peers that dominate Salesforce’s TAM are maintaining or raising expectations:
- Microsoft (MSFT) – its FY 2025 Intelligent Cloud segment is now projected to grow ~15 % year‑over‑year, with Azure revenue guidance comfortably ahead of consensus.
- Adobe (ADBE) – the firm lifted its FY 2025 digital experience revenue outlook by ~3 % and still expects ~20 % YoY growth, well above analyst averages.
- Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) – both have signaled 6‑8 % cloud‑services growth, roughly in line with consensus and ahead of Salesforce’s guidance.
Trading implications: The gap between Salesforce’s guidance and the consensus, combined with the softer outlook relative to its peers, has already spurred a 3‑4 % sell‑off in the stock, testing the $190‑$185 support zone (the 50‑day EMA sits near $188). A break below $185 could open the path to $175, while a bounce off the 200‑day SMA (~$200) with volume may indicate a short‑cover rally and a chance to go long on a pull‑back, targeting the $210‑$215 range if the company can demonstrate faster‑than‑expected SaaS adoption. Given the relative under‑performance versus Microsoft, Adobe, and Oracle, a cautious short‑to‑mid‑term bias is warranted unless new product‑revenue catalysts emerge that could narrow the guidance gap. Keep an eye on any revisions to the FY 2025 outlook in the next quarter and on macro‑tech spending trends that could either exacerbate or alleviate the revenue pressure.