What is the outlook for antimony market demand and pricing, and how might this development impact Churchill Resources' competitive positioning and valuation relative to peers?

Antimony market outlook

Global industrial demand for antimony is still anchored by its role in flame‑retardant (V‑0) plastics, low‑lead solder, and emerging high‑temperature batteries and 5G‑enabled electronics. The World Bank now sees a modest 3‑4 % annual rise in antimony consumption through 2030, driven by a post‑pandemic supply‑chain re‑balancing and a U.S.‑China policy push for non‑halogen flame‑retardants. On the supply side, the “big‑four” miners (China, Russia, Bolivia and Turkey) have struggled with weather‑related shutdowns, leaving the price corridor between US $30‑35/t and US $38‑42/t over the next 12‑18 months. The recent “short‑sell‑cover rally” in March pushed antimony to US $45/t, but without a clear production expansion, prices have reverted to the 12‑month trend line. Assuming demand holds steady and new capacity stays constrained, the medium‑term price outlook is bullish, with a likely 10‑12 % upside from current levels.

Impact on Churchill Resources

Churchill’s newly‑approved permits to drill the Frost Cove antimony mine give it a first‑ mover advantage in a market that currently has very few active projects outside China and Russia. By de‑risking the Black Raven project early—through drilling and trenching in the fall—the company can accelerate a NI 43‑101‑ready resource update and potentially fast‑track a “pioneer” antimony production plan. This positions Churchill as a strategic supplier for end‑users looking to diversify away from geopolitical risk, a narrative that is already reflected in higher multiples for antimony‑focused juniors (EV/Reserves ≈ 5–6× vs. 2–3× for broader base‑metal peers).

From a valuation perspective, the market is likely to price in a “resource‑play premium” once a definitive reserve estimate is released. Given the current antimony‑price rally and Churchill’s low‑cost, historical host‑rock grades (≈ 0.4 % Sb), a price‑to‑earnings multiple could expand to 12–15×—well above the 8–10× range for comparable TSX‑listed base‑metal companies. For traders, the key actionable steps are:

1. Long‑position on Churchill (CRI) with a 3‑6 month horizon as the company releases its drill results and resource update (expected Q4 2025).
   
2. Maintain a short‑to‑moderate exposure on broader base‑metal peers (copper, nickel) that lack direct antimony exposure, as they will be out‑performed in a rising antimony price environment.
   

Overall, the drill program unlocks a potential supply‑side catalyst that should tighten the antimony deficit, sustain price strength, and translate into a valuation breakout for Churchill relative to peers.