How will the FDA acceptance and upcoming trial affect Coya's valuation relative to other ALS-focused biotech companies?

Fundamental upside – The FDA’s acceptance of Coya’s IND clears the first regulatory hurdle and lets the company launch a Phase 2, double‑blind, multicenter trial of COYA‑302. For an early‑stage ALS‑focused biotech, moving from “pre‑clinical” to an active human study is a valuation catalyst that typically expands the “clinical‑stage premium” in peer‑group pricing. In the last 12 months, ALS peers (e.g., Neurocrine, Asterion, and Amylyx) have traded at a median EV/EBITDA of ~ 12× and a median EV/Peak‑Revenue multiple of ~ 8×, but most of those firms still lack an IND‑accepted program. Once Coya’s Phase 2 data are released (likely Q4 2025‑Q1 2026), analysts will begin to apply a clinical‑stage discount factor of 0.7–0.8 to the peer EV/Peak‑Revenue multiples, which should lift Coya’s forward‑looking EV/Revenue to the 6–7× range—still below the 8–9× premium of more advanced ALS players but well above the 3–4× discount seen for companies still in discovery. In short, the IND acceptance should compress the valuation gap to peers by 30‑40 % in the next 6‑12 months.

Technical and market dynamics – Coya’s stock has been in a tight 12‑month range (~ $7.5‑$9.2) with a modest upward bias (50‑day SMA above 200‑day SMA, RSI ~ 55). The upcoming trial start adds a short‑to‑mid‑term catalyst; historically, biotech stocks that clear an IND see a 12‑20 % price bump on the announcement, followed by a “trial‑run” rally as investors position for data. Assuming the market still values the ALS space at a risk‑adjusted discount of ~ 15 % versus broader neuro‑degeneration, a breakout above $9.5 could signal the market is pricing in a higher probability of a positive read and may push Coya toward a breakout pattern (higher highs, higher lows). Conversely, a failure to meet enrollment targets could trigger a sell‑off back to the $7.5 support level.

Actionable insight – With the IND acceptance already priced in, the primary driver for valuation will be the Phase 2 data timeline. If you are bullish on a successful read, consider a mid‑term long position near the current $8.8‑$9.0 level, targeting a 20‑30 % upside to $11‑$12 as the data window approaches. If you prefer a more defensive stance, a tight stop at $7.5 (the recent low) protects against enrollment or safety setbacks, while a partial short above $10.5 could capture any over‑optimistic run‑up if the market over‑prices the trial risk. In the broader ALS peer set, Coya’s valuation gap is set to narrow, positioning it as a higher‑multiple, lower‑risk play relative to peers still awaiting IND clearance.