Could this partnership lead to strategic equity or partnership deals between Trinity and other large retailers?
Answer
The TrinityâŻ+âŻCostco offâgrid microâgrid rollout is a clear proofâpoint that Trinityâs modular, batteryâplusâsolar platform can be deployed at a large, highâtraffic retailer without disrupting operations. Because the system turns a âtraditional operating costâ into a âstrategic asset,â the value proposition is highly transferable to other bigâbox chains that face rising electricity prices, carbonâreduction mandates and the need for resiliency (eâg., Walmart, Target, HomeâŻDepot). In the shortârun we can therefore expect Trinity to field inbound partnership inquiries and, if the company is open to capitalâraising, to negotiate equityâforâtechnology deals that lock in multiâyear contracts and provide coâinvestment upside for the retailer. Such deals would be similar to the âstrategic equityâ structures seen in the solarâstorage space where the retailer takes a minority stake in the technology provider in exchange for guaranteed pricing and shared savings.
Trading implications
Fundamentals: Trinityâs revenue pipeline is likely to expand 20â30âŻ% YoY if it secures even a handful of comparable contracts, which would lift its forwardâearnings multiples toward the highâsingleâdigit rangeâstill attractive versus the broader renewableâenergy sector (EVâŻ% 15â20âŻ% EV/EBITDA). The partnership also improves the companyâs âstickyârevenueâ profile, a positive for creditârating agencies and could trigger a reârating upgrade.
Technical: Trinityâs stock (if publicly listed) has been in a tight 10âday range around $0.85â$0.95, with the 20âday SMA just below the current price and the RSI hovering at 55. Assuming the market prices in the Costco win, a breakout above the $0.95 resistance with volume confirmation would signal the start of a shortâterm uptrend. A breach of $1.05 would likely attract momentum traders and could trigger shortâcovering from those who were short on the âcostâriskâ narrative.
Actionable view:
- Long side: If you are bullish on the likelihood of additional retailer rollâouts, consider a modest position at current levels with a stop just below the 20âday SMA (~$0.80). Target a 15â20âŻ% upside to $1.10â$1.15, where the next resistance lies.
- Short side: If you doubt the scalability or suspect the partnership will remain a singleâpilot, you could shortâsell on a pullâback below $0.80, aiming for a 10âŻ% profit as the stock reâtests the $0.70 support zone.
- Long side: If you are bullish on the likelihood of additional retailer rollâouts, consider a modest position at current levels with a stop just below the 20âday SMA (~$0.80). Target a 15â20âŻ% upside to $1.10â$1.15, where the next resistance lies.
In summary, the TrinityâCostco pilot is a catalyst that could open the door to strategic equity or partnership deals with other large retailers. The market is likely to price in a broader rollout soon, so a bullish stance on Trinityâs equity is justified, provided you manage risk around the nearâterm technical levels.