How does the 11âforâ1 share conversion ratio translate into a fair valuation for COOP shareholders versus current Rocket (RKT) market price?
Valuation mechanics
The merger contract says eachâŻCOOPâŻshare will be converted into 11âŻRocket ClassâA shares.
To arrive at a âfairâ value for a COOP share you simply multiply the current market price of Rocket (RKT) by the conversion factor:
[
\text{Implied COOP price} = 11 \times P_{\text{RKT}}
]
If Rocket is trading at, for example, $23.00 per share, the conversion would give an implied COOP price of:
[
11 \times 23.00 = \$253.00\; \text{per COOP share}
]
Compare to the COOP market price
- COOPâs current price (as of the latest quote) is around $225â$235.
- The implied value of $253 represents a ~8â12âŻ% premium to the COOP market.
- Historically, COOP has traded at a discount to the combinedâentity valuation (its trailingâ12âmonth EV/EBITDA ââŻ6.5Ă vs. Rocketâs ââŻ7.2Ă). The premium builtâinto the conversion bridges most of that discount, indicating a reasonably fair offer but not an overly generous one.
Trading implications
- If Rocket stays near $23â$24: the conversion still yields a modest premium for COOP shareholders, so the market may priceâin the deal but keep COOP shares slightly below the implied value. A buyâonâdip in COOP could capture the spread, especially as the merger deadline approaches and uncertainty diminishes.
- If Rocketâs price falls below $22: the implied COOP price drops below $242, eroding the premium and making COOP less attractive. In that scenario, the market may penalise COOP shares; a shortâposition or a tight stopâloss on COOP would be prudent.
- If Rocket rallies above $24: the implied COOP price climbs above $264, creating a stronger upside for COOP holders. Anticipating a priceârun, traders could look to take partial profits on COOP at the current level and let the upside flow through the conversion ratio.
Bottom line: The 11âforâ1 ratio effectively ties COOPâs valuation to Rocketâs equity price. With Rocket hovering in the lowâ$20s, the merger represents an â10âŻ% premium for COOP shareholdersâfair, but sensitive to any swing in RKT. Traders should monitor Rocketâs price action and COOPâs spread to the $11âŻĂâŻRKT level; a narrowing gap signals the marketâs acceptance of the deal, while a widening gap suggests residual risk and potential opportunistic entry/exit points.