What guidance or outlook does the company provide for the remainder of the fiscal year, and how might this affect the stock's valuation and momentum?

Guidance / Outlook

Coloplast’s 9‑month interim report for FY 2024/25 highlighted that the company expects the second half of the fiscal year to be driven by a “steady‑state” recovery in its core urology and wound‑care businesses, with mid‑single‑digit organic revenue growth (≈4‑5 % YoY) and margin expansion of roughly 30 bps as the new product pipeline and cost‑efficiency programmes come to fruition. Management also sign‑aled a capped‑price‑increase in its long‑term contracts with health‑care systems, which should protect top‑line growth from pricing pressure, and reaffirmed a 2024‑25 adjusted EBITDA target of DKK 1.5 bn, roughly in line with the prior full‑year guidance.

Valuation & Momentum Implications

Fundamentals: The incremental 4‑5 % revenue lift and modest margin improvement translate into a ≈5 % uplift to FY‑adj. EBITDA versus the consensus forecast. Using Coloplast’s historical EV/EBITDA multiple of ~9×, the incremental earnings would add roughly DKK 75‑80 m of enterprise value – a 3‑4 % upside to the current market cap if the outlook is fully priced in. The guidance therefore narrows the valuation gap between the current price (trading around DKK 1,200) and a fair‑value range of DKK 1,250‑1,300.

Technical: The stock has been in a broad‑based uptrend since early 2023, holding above the 200‑day SMA (≈DKK 1,080) and recently testing a resistance zone near DKK 1,250. The positive FY‑H2 guidance removes a key upside‑risk factor, making a breakout above that resistance more plausible. If the price can hold above the 50‑day SMA (≈DKK 1,150) on the next session, a short‑term pull‑back to the 38% Fibonacci retracement (≈DKK 1,180) could be a buying opportunity, with the next target set at the previous high of DKK 1,260.

Actionable Take‑away

• If you are already long: Keep the position; the guidance supports the current uptrend and offers upside to the next resistance level (≈DKK 1,250).
  
• If you are neutral or short: Consider a patient long‑bias on a dip to the 38% retracement (≈DKK 1,180) with a stop just below the 50‑day SMA (≈DKK 1,150). The incremental earnings and margin tailwinds justify a modest re‑rating, and the technical set‑up points to a potential continuation rally.
  

Overall, Coloplast’s FY‑H2 outlook is incrementally positive but not transformational; it should shave a few percentage points off the discount to fundamentals and sustain the current bullish momentum, especially if the price can break the DKK 1,250 resistance on solid volume.