COLO

What is the expected impact of the 9M results on the stock’s technical indicators (e.g., support/resistance levels) in the short‑term?

Created August 08, 2025 at 07:36 AM

Short‑term technical outlook for Coloplast A/S (COLO) after the 9‑month 2024/25 earnings release

Caveat: The answer below is based only on the fact that an earnings release and an analyst call will occur on 19 August 2025. No actual results, guidance, or price data were supplied in the news item, so any projection of specific support or resistance levels is necessarily speculative. Treat this as a framework for how you might interpret the upcoming price action, not as a recommendation or guarantee of future performance.

1. Why earnings matter for technicals

Reason	Typical impact on charts
Surprise (positive or negative)	Sharp moves that can break through the most recent swing high (new resistance) or low (new support).
Volume spike	Increased trading volume validates the move and makes the breakout/breakdown more reliable.
Post‑release “gap”	If the price gaps up/down at the open, the gap often becomes a new support (if it’s a down‑gap) or resistance (if it’s an up‑gap).
Volatility expansion	Wider Bollinger Bands, higher Average True Range (ATR) and larger price swings in the 1‑day and intra‑day charts.
Market sentiment shift	Changes in trend‑following indicators (e.g., 20‑day moving average crossing the 50‑day MA).

Because COLO will release its interim results at ~07:30 CEST and hold a conference call at 11:00 CEST, the most likely price reaction will happen in the first trading hour after the market opens (European markets open at 09:00 CEST). This period is where you should monitor the chart most closely.

2. Key technical zones to watch (methodology)

Since we do not have the current price, the exact numeric levels are omitted. Instead, use the following step‑by‑step approach on a daily chart (or a 15‑minute chart for intra‑day play) to pinpoint where support and resistance are likely to sit:

Step	What to look for	How to mark the level
1️⃣ Identify the most recent swing high and swing low (the last 3–4 weeks)	These are the classic short‑term resistance (high) and support (low).	Draw horizontal lines at those peaks/troughs.
2️⃣ Plot the 20‑day and 50‑day Simple Moving Averages (SMA)	The price’s relationship to these MAs often guides short‑term trend direction.	If the price is above both, the 20‑day SMA can act as near‑term support; if below, it may act as resistance.
3️⃣ Locate the 200‑day SMA	This long‑term average is a “major” support/resistance level that investors watch after earnings.	A break below it would signal a bearish shift; a hold above suggests resilience.
4️⃣ Mark Fibonacci retracement levels from the most recent significant up‑move (or down‑move)	Common levels (38.2 %, 50 %, 61.8 %) often become temporary support/resistance after a news‑driven swing.	Use the most recent high‑low swing that encompasses the earnings date.
5️⃣ Check Bollinger Bands (20‑period, 2‑σ)	An expanding band indicates higher volatility; a price closing outside the band can hint at a new trend.	Note where the price sits relative to the upper/lower bands at the open.
6️⃣ Review recent volume profile	High volume nodes frequently become “support” when price falls back, and “resistance” when price rallies up.	Identify the price level where the last few days’ volume clustered.
7️⃣ Observe the Relative Strength Index (RSI)	RSI > 70 may warn of an over‑bought condition; RSI < 30 may signal oversold.	Use a 14‑day RSI to gauge whether a breakout could be premature.

Putting it together:

Bullish scenario (results beat expectations):
- Price gaps up at open, holding above the prior swing high.
- The gap area becomes new support; the prior swing high becomes resistance.
- If the price then crosses above the 20‑day SMA with strong volume, the 20‑day SMA often flips to support and the next resistance may be the 50‑day SMA or the next Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8 %).
Bearish scenario (results miss expectations):
- Price gaps down or drops sharply, breaking the prior swing low.
- The swing low turns into resistance, while the gap becomes a new support (if the price stabilises) or the 200‑day SMA could become the next major support line.
- A break below the 20‑day SMA with high volume often leads to a short‑term downtrend, with the 50‑day SMA acting as the next resistance level.

3. Sample price‑level framework (illustrative)

Use the actual COLO price chart to replace the placeholder numbers below.

Level	Typical label	How it’s derived
A	Current price (pre‑earnings)	Last closing price before the earnings announcement
B	Recent swing high (≈ 2‑3 weeks)	Horizontal resistance line drawn at the last peak
C	Recent swing low (≈ 2‑3 weeks)	Horizontal support line drawn at the last trough
D	20‑day SMA	Dynamic support/resistance that moves with price
E	50‑day SMA	Mid‑term trend line
F	200‑day SMA	Long‑term “anchor” level
G	61.8 % Fibonacci retracement (from last major move)	Potential intermediate support/resistance
H	Upper Bollinger Band	Over‑bought/volatility ceiling
I	Lower Bollinger Band	Over‑sold/volatility floor

When the market opens on 19 August 2025, watch the first 15‑minute candle:

If the candle opens above level B and closes above it, level B now becomes short‑term support. Expect traders to target the next resistance at level E (50‑day SMA) or level G (Fibonacci).
If the candle opens below level C and stays below, level C becomes short‑term resistance. The next downside target could be level F (200‑day SMA) or the next lower Fibonacci level (38.2 %).

4. Practical trading‑type guidelines (if you trade the news)

Situation	Typical entry	Typical stop‑loss	Typical target
Bullish breakout (price > B, strong volume)	Enter at the close of the breakout candle or pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA (D)	1–2 % below the breakout level or just under the 20‑day SMA	First resistance (E), then G
Bearish breakdown (price < C, heavy selling)	Short at the close of the breakdown candle or on a retest of the 20‑day SMA	1–2 % above the breakdown level or just above the 20‑day SMA	First support (F) or next lower Fibonacci
No clear direction (price stalls in a range)	Trade the range: buy near C (support), sell near B (resistance)	Tight stops (0.5–1 % outside the range)	Opposite side of the range
High volatility (wide Bollinger Bands, ATR spikes)	Consider tightening position size; avoid tight stops; use volatility‑adjusted stops (e.g., 1.5 × ATR)	—	—

5. What to do before the call

Set up alerts on your charting platform for price crossing the swing‑high (B) and swing‑low (C).
Check implied volatility on any COLO options (if available) – a spike indicates market uncertainty; a subsequent contraction after the call often signals a clear direction emerging.
Review analyst sentiment on the conference call (e.g., tone of the Q&A) – even subtle language shifts can move the price a few percent in the minutes after the call.
Pre‑load a one‑hour chart (e.g., 5‑minute candles) to monitor the immediate reaction; the daily chart will confirm the new support/resistance after the market settles.

6. Summary

The earnings release on 19 August 2025 will most likely create a short‑term volatility spike and may shift the stock’s technical profile.
In the absence of actual results, the key technical zones to monitor are the most recent swing high/low, the 20‑/50‑day moving averages, and major Fibonacci retracement levels derived from recent price moves.
Bullish outcomes will push the price above the recent swing high, turning that level into short‑term support and setting the next resistance at the 50‑day SMA or a Fibonacci level.
Bearish outcomes will break the recent swing low, converting it into resistance, with the next downside targets at the 200‑day SMA or lower Fibonacci levels.
Volume and price pattern confirmation (breakouts holding above/ below the moving averages, gaps staying intact) are essential to validate any new support or resistance.

Keep a close eye on the first 15‑30 minutes of trading after the market opens, watch the volume profile, and adjust your technical levels accordingly. Remember that earnings‑driven moves can be abrupt; using volatility‑adjusted stops and modest position sizing will help manage the risk inherent in this news‑driven environment.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.