Fundamental outlook:
The Deribit acquisition immediately widens Coinbase’s product set from spot‑trading to a deep, high‑velocity derivatives franchise. Deribit’s July‑‘25 volume of > $185 bn and $60 bn of open interest signal a sizeable, growing revenue stream that should lift Coinbase’s FY‑26 revenue guidance by double‑digit percentages once integration is complete. The market will likely re‑price Coinbase at a higher earnings multiple, reflecting both the “first‑mover” premium on a global crypto‑derivatives platform and the higher margin profile of options‑/futures‑based income. If analysts currently value COIN at roughly 10‑12 × forward FY‑26 earnings, a comparable pure‑play crypto‑derivatives peer trades around 15‑18 ×. Assuming the integration adds ~15 % FY‑26 earnings, a forward P/E in the 13‑15 × range is plausible, and the EV/EBITDA multiple could expand from the current 8‑9 × to roughly 12‑14 ×.
Technical and short‑term price reaction:
The news is tagged with a strong positive sentiment (70) and arrives on a day of relatively thin overall market volume, which historically creates a short‑run “surprise‑buy” effect for high‑impact crypto‑related releases. COIN is currently testing a resistance band near $78‑$80, just above its 20‑day EMA. An intraday break above $80, supported by rising volume, would likely trigger a bounce to the $85‑$90 zone, aligning with the prior swing high. Conversely, a failure to clear $78 could see the stock retreat to its 50‑day EMA around $71, where the next support lies at $66.
Actionable insight:
Given the fundamental upside and the technical set‑up, a buy‑the‑breakout strategy is warranted: enter a long position on a clean close above $80 with a stop‑loss just below $75 (the 20‑day EMA). Target the $85‑$90 range for the first leg, and consider scaling out as the stock approaches $95‑$100, where the longer‑term bullish bias (aligned with a rising 200‑day EMA) would suggest a new multi‑month uptrend. Keep an eye on broader crypto‑market volatility; a sharp correction in BTC/ETH could temporarily compress derivatives volume and introduce downside risk to the trade.