Fundamental impact: The Q2 2025 release showed revenue up ~22 % YoY to roughly $115 million, a margin expansion to 18 % (vs. 14 % in Q1) and net income turning positive for the first time in the year, driven by higher student enrollment in its K‑12 English‑learning modules and a tighter cost‑structure after the recent head‑count rationalisation. Management also lifted FY 2025 guidance to $470‑$485 million of revenue (previous range $440‑$455 m) and 2025 EBITDA to $95‑$105 million, implying an implied forward EV/EBITDA of ~7.5×—well below the 9‑10× range the stock has historically traded at. The earnings beat and upgraded outlook will likely trigger a valuation lift of 8‑12 % as analysts raise price targets and the market re‑prices the higher growth and profitability outlook.
Trading‑volume and technical outlook: Earnings releases on COE typically generate a 2‑3× spike in daily volume, and the combination of a strong beat plus a bullish guidance upgrade is expected to sustain that surge for several sessions as investors rebalance and institutional algo‑flows kick in. On the chart, the stock is currently testing the 20‑day EMA near $4.35 after a short‑term pull‑back; a break above the $4.45 resistance level, confirmed by a volume increase of >150 % of the 10‑day average, could open the door to a run toward the $5.00–$5.20 range (the prior high and the 50‑day EMA). Conversely, a failure to hold $4.35 with weak volume may see the price retest the $4.10 support (the March low). For traders, a bullish entry on a pull‑back to $4.30‑$4.35 with a stop just below $4.10, or a short‑term scalp on a breakout above $4.45 with a tight stop at $4.38, aligns with the expected valuation lift and heightened liquidity. Keep an eye on any post‑earnings conference‑call commentary for hints on enrollment churn or macro‑headwinds, which could temper the upside.