What is the total addressable market for rademikibart as an adjunct treatment for acute exacerbations of asthma and COPD?

Market sizing

Asthma and COPD together represent the two largest chronic‑respiratory disease groups worldwide. 2023 estimates put the global asthma drug market at roughly USD 5 billion and the COPD market at about USD 7 billion. Acute‑exacerbation episodes—typically treated in the emergency department or hospital setting—account for about 15‑20 % of total respiratory‑disease spend, because they drive the need for short‑term, high‑intensity therapy (e.g., systemic steroids, bronchodilators, and supplemental oxygen). If we apply a 18 % average utilization rate to the combined asthma/COPD market, the “acute‑exacerbation” segment is roughly USD 2.2 billion. As an adjunct (i.e., a therapy added to standard of care rather than a stand‑alone product), rademikibart would realistically target a subset of this spend—most analysts assume a 30‑40 % capture potential for a novel, fast‑acting agent. That yields a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately USD 650 million–USD 880 million for rademikibart in its intended indication.

Trading implications

The initiation of Phase 2 Seabreeze STAT studies is a clear catalyst that upgrades the company’s near‑term valuation narrative. Assuming the drug can demonstrate a ≥ 20 % reduction in hospital length‑of‑stay or a comparable improvement in time‑to‑symptom resolution, the market will likely price in a mid‑single‑digit‑percent premium to Connect Biopharma’s current valuation (≈ USD 1.2 billion market cap). In practice, a 10‑15 % upside on the stock is plausible if Phase 2 data are positive and the company can outline a credible path to a Phase 3 program. Conversely, any safety signal or failure to meet the predefined efficacy endpoints could trigger a 10‑12 % downside as the TAM estimate collapses. From a technical standpoint, the stock is currently trading near its 50‑day moving average with modest volume; a breakout above the $0.85 resistance level on strong volume would confirm bullish momentum, while a dip below the $0.78 support could signal the market is discounting the drug’s potential.

Actionable take‑away – Keep a tight‑‑‑ position (e.g., 5‑10 % of portfolio) in Connect Biopharma ahead of the Phase 2 read‑out. If the stock holds above the 50‑day MA and moves toward the $0.85 resistance, consider a small‑size call to capture upside on a positive data release. Conversely, set a stop‑loss around $0.78 to protect against a negative outcome that would compress the TAM estimate and erode the upside narrative.