Will the announced deals lead to any updates in the company's guidance or target price from analysts?
Answer
The new Matchpoint⢠contracts are a clear, bottomâup catalyst for revenue growth in Cineverse (CNVS). The platform is the companyâs primary engine for recurring, highâmargin SaaS income, and signing several new customers signals that the commercial rollout is accelerating faster than the âsteadyâstateâ assumptions built into the current FYâ25 guidance. In practice, analysts will likely tighten their earnings forecastsâespecially for the 2025â2026 periodsâbecause the incremental ARR (annual recurring revenue) from these deals should start hitting the books in the next two quarters, improving both topâline growth and operating leverage.
Given the marketâs reaction to comparable SaaSârollout news (typically a 5â10âŻ% price bump on the stock and a 10â15âŻ% uplift in targetâprice estimates), we can expect at least one analyst to raise the 2025 earnings per share (EPS) outlook and lift the target price toward the highâ$30s range (from the current lowâ$30s consensus). The upside is reinforced by the technical picture: CNVS has been holding a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart since early August, with the 20âday SMA still above the 50âday SMA and the RSI hovering near 55âsuggesting room for a shortâterm rally if the guidance revision is confirmed.
Trading implication:âŻIf the company issues an updated, more aggressive guidance or analysts publish higher target prices, the stock could see 5â8âŻ% upside in the next 2â4âŻweeks. A prudent entry point would be near the current support at $28.50, with a stop just below $27.80. If the guidance remains unchanged, the rally may be limited, and a neutralâtoâslightâshort stance is advisable until the earnings release.